Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Robelis Despaigne vs Tai Tuivasa

7:00 PM ET· final
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Model pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Robelis Despaigneby KO/TKO68% to win · closed -420
Result: Robelis Despaigne by DEC in Round 3 — model got the winner ✓
Probetrics fight model
Tai Tuivasa
35% +185
Robelis Despaigne
65% -185
How it ends
Tuivasa by KO/TKO
19.4%
fair +414
Tuivasa by SUB
1.6%
fair +5989
Tuivasa by DEC
14.1%
fair +612
Despaigne by KO/TKO
38.4%
fair +161
Despaigne by SUB
7.1%
fair +1309
Despaigne by DEC
19.4%
fair +415

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R135.9%fair +178
Ends in R219.8%fair +406
Ends in R310.9%fair +820
Goes distance33.5%fair +199
How this fight plays out

The model makes Despaigne a solid 65% favorite. Striking volume is near even (3.0 vs 2.6 per minute), so the fight likely turns on damage rather than output. Despaigne is most dangerous early — 6 of 7 tracked wins ended in the first round. Despaigne's most likely path is by KO/TKO (38%), and the fight goes the distance 33% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.