Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Tresean Gore vs Vicente Luque

7:00 PM ET· final
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Model pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Vicente Luqueby DEC52% to win · closed -102
Result: Tresean Gore by DEC in Round 3 — model missed ✗
Probetrics fight model
Vicente Luque
51% -106
Tresean Gore
49% +106
How it ends
Luque by KO/TKO
6.5%
fair +1443
Luque by SUB
23.6%
fair +323
Luque by DEC
21.2%
fair +371
Gore by KO/TKO
7.8%
fair +1188
Gore by SUB
20.8%
fair +380
Gore by DEC
20.1%
fair +398

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R131.7%fair +216
Ends in R217.4%fair +474
Ends in R39.6%fair +943
Goes distance41.3%fair +142
How this fight plays out

The model makes Luque a narrow 51% favorite. Striking volume is near even (3.8 vs 3.7 per minute), so the fight likely turns on damage rather than output. Luque is most dangerous early — 4 of 6 tracked wins ended in the first round. Luque's most likely path is by submission (24%), and the fight goes the distance 41% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.