Probetrics — Sports Analytics
← UFC picksFight data: tape, stats, form, odds →

Joshua Van vs Alexandre Pantoja

9:00 PM ET· final
Save imageSquare
Model pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Joshua Vanby DEC54% to win · closed +155
Result: Joshua Van by DEC in Round 5 — model got the winner ✓
Probetrics fight model
Alexandre Pantoja
35% +188
Joshua Van
65% -188
How it ends
Pantoja by KO/TKO
0.7%
fair +14311
Pantoja by SUB
24.2%
fair +314
Pantoja by DEC
9.8%
fair +918
Van by KO/TKO
20.5%
fair +388
Van by SUB
2.1%
fair +4662
Van by DEC
42.7%
fair +134

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R121.8%fair +358
Ends in R212.0%fair +733
Ends in R36.6%fair +1414
Ends in R44.5%fair +2102
Ends in R52.5%fair +3904
Goes distance52.5%fair -111
How this fight plays out

The model makes Van a solid 65% favorite. Expect Pantoja to chase the takedown (3.4/15 min at 44%) while Van tries to keep it standing behind 75% takedown defense. Van's most likely path is on the scorecards (43%), and the fight goes the distance 53% of the time. The live danger for Van: Pantoja finishes 40% of wins by submission and Van has been submitted in 50% of losses.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.