Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Kevin Borjas vs Rei Tsuruya

3:00 AM ET· final
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Model pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Rei Tsuruyaby SUB73% to win · closed -680
Result: Rei Tsuruya by SUB in Round 1 — model got the winner ✓
Probetrics fight model
Rei Tsuruya
70% -234
Kevin Borjas
30% +234
How it ends
Tsuruya by KO/TKO
9.5%
fair +955
Tsuruya by SUB
30.6%
fair +226
Tsuruya by DEC
29.9%
fair +234
Borjas by KO/TKO
2.3%
fair +4316
Borjas by SUB
2.0%
fair +5013
Borjas by DEC
25.7%
fair +289

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R123.9%fair +318
Ends in R213.2%fair +660
Ends in R37.2%fair +1281
Goes distance55.7%fair -126
How this fight plays out

The model makes Tsuruya a clear 70% favorite. Expect Tsuruya to chase the takedown (2.9/15 min at 25%) while Borjas tries to keep it standing behind 81% takedown defense. Tsuruya is most dangerous early — 6 of 11 tracked wins ended in the first round. Tsuruya's most likely path is by submission (31%), and the fight goes the distance 56% of the time.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.