Aieza Bertolso vs Camila Reynoso
7:00 PM ET· scheduledLate replacement — this matchup was made 7 days out— the model prices time since a fighter's last bout, never how long they had to prepare for this one. The books do price it, so treat any gap between us and them on this fight as our blind spot, not their mistake.
Thin market — no sportsbook has priced this fight. Every probability below is model-only, with nothing to check it against.
Model pickThe fight model's single most likely outcome: predicted winner, their most likely method of victory, and whether it ends inside the distance. Full probability breakdown below.
Aieza Bertolsoby DEC
55% to win · 32% that it’s by DEC · 57% this goes the distance
Model fair price -125
Probetrics fight model
Camila Reynoso
45% +125
Aieza Bertolso
55% -125
How it ends
Reynoso by KO/TKO
15.4%
fair +550
Reynoso by SUB
4.0%
fair +2412
Reynoso by DEC
25.1%
fair +298
Bertolso by KO/TKO
7.8%
fair +1184
Bertolso by SUB
16.1%
fair +522
Bertolso by DEC
31.6%
fair +216
“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.
When it ends
Ends in R123.3%fair +328
Ends in R212.8%fair +679
Ends in R37.1%fair +1316
Goes distance56.8%fair -131
How this fight plays out
The model makes Bertolso a narrow 55% favorite. Bertolso's most likely path is on the scorecards (32%), and the fight goes the distance 57% of the time.
Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.
Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.