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Line Read: his last ten games against today's line
A sportsbook posts a number for a player (say 24 points). The Line Read shows how his recent games sat on either side of that number.
Example, made-up numbers
Ten games against a line of 24, enlarged
The same games, as a props board draws them, and a young season beside it
- Filled bar above the dashed line = he went over that day. Hollow bar below it = he went under. A short tick on the line = a push (exactly the number). Longer bar = a bigger gap.
- Oldest game on the left, newest on the right. Dots on the left are games not played yet, not misses.
- Under the bars (here 6/10): how many of those games cleared the line, the rate (▲ or ▼ when it sits 5+ points off the books' price), and the books' fair chance. That last part is screen 2. On a props board these numbers are part of Pro: everyone sees the bars, and Pro adds the count, the rate and the gauge.
It is his own history, not a forecastPast games only. A player's last ten do not decide his next one; nothing here is a pick.
The fair line: what the books' prices say once the margin is out
Every price includes the book's cut. Take the cut out and average the books, and you get the chance the market itself is putting on the over.
Example, made-up numbers
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | 24.5 | -115 | -105 |
| FanDuel | 24.5 | -110 | -110 |
| BetMGM | 24.5 | -120 | +100 |
- Over / Under tiles are the best price posted for each side, with the book.
- Fair is the books' average chance of the over with the margin removed, and how many books it rests on. Here that is 51%: the market's view, not ours.We never put our own probability on a prop. Fair is arithmetic on the books' prices.
- A bet on one side only (anytime touchdown, for example) has no fair line. Its tile says Implied and still includes the margin.
Hit-rate pills and “vs price”
The pills give the same idea over different windows: how often he cleared the line in his last 5, 10 or 20 games, all of them, a season, or against tonight's opponent.
Example, made-up numbers (tap a pill)
L10: over the line in 7 of 10 games (70%). The books' fair chance is 51%.
- Colour and shape compare the rate with the books' fair chance, not with 50%. ▲ green = 5+ points above the price, ▼ red = 5+ below, plain = about level.
- Under five games a pill stays grey. The small bar under each rate is its 90% range: the fewer the games, the wider it is.
- The pills, the game-by-game chart and the rest of a player's research are his full breakdown. Signed out, a card shows the line, the best prices, the books' fair chance and his last 10 games as bars for one market, and no hit counts; a free account opens 5 players' full breakdowns a day, and Pro has no limit.
- vs price on a board is that same gap, hit rate minus the books' fair chance. Sorting by it lists the biggest gaps first (on a props board, the hit rates, vs price and these sorts are part of Pro; everyone sees the line, the best price and the last-ten bars); it is a way to browse history, not a list of bets.A gap between his history and the price is a question to check, not a signal. Small samples flip often.
Where the model lives, and where the data lives
Two kinds of page, kept apart on purpose. Every block says which one it is with a small tag.
Data pages
Pick a sport in the header: Games, Props, Players, Teams, Compare. What happened, what the books post, how players and teams have done. Nothing here is a pick.
Predictions and Results
The model has one home, the volt Predictions button. Each winner call is locked before the start and graded in public on Results, misses included.
- Tap any i or ? on the site for a plain-words definition. Search (the header icon, or ⌘K) finds any player, team or fighter.
- The winner call is the record. Props are history and market facts: we do not publish prop picks.
Try it on a real player
Every line, prop board and matchup stays free, and so does the full graded record. A free account (no card) opens 5 players' full breakdowns a day, keeps your saved props across devices and runs a private bet log. Pro removes the limit and adds the model's picks and the boards' hit rates.
Probetrics is a research tool, not a tout service: every number is explained and nothing is ever "guaranteed." Bet only what you can afford to lose. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.