Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Mike Davis vs Nurullo Aliev

9:00 AM ET· final
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Model pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Nurullo Alievby DEC75% to win · closed -222
Result: Nurullo Aliev by DEC in Round 3 — model got the winner ✓
Probetrics fight model
Nurullo Aliev
68% -210
Mike Davis
32% +210
How it ends
Aliev by KO/TKO
8.0%
fair +1150
Aliev by SUB
5.5%
fair +1721
Aliev by DEC
54.3%
fair -119
Davis by KO/TKO
10.1%
fair +887
Davis by SUB
7.6%
fair +1222
Davis by DEC
14.5%
fair +589

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R116.8%fair +494
Ends in R29.3%fair +980
Ends in R35.1%fair +1863
Goes distance68.8%fair -221
How this fight plays out

The model makes Aliev a solid 68% favorite. Davis throws more (4.3 vs 2.6/min), but the model sees Aliev edging rounds on effectiveness — absorbing 2.0/min to Davis's 4.6. Aliev tends to settle in for the long haul — 10 of 12 tracked fights reached the judges. Aliev's most likely path is on the scorecards (54%), and the fight goes the distance 69% of the time.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.