Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Benoit Saint-Denis vs Paddy Pimblett

10:50 PM ET· final
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Model pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Benoit Saint-Denisby SUB75% to win · closed -125
Result: Paddy Pimblett by SUB in Round 1 — model missed ✗
Probetrics fight model
Paddy Pimblett
33% +203
Benoit Saint-Denis
67% -203
How it ends
Pimblett by KO/TKO
10.0%
fair +901
Pimblett by SUB
12.8%
fair +679
Pimblett by DEC
10.2%
fair +880
Saint-Denis by KO/TKO
12.2%
fair +718
Saint-Denis by SUB
32.8%
fair +205
Saint-Denis by DEC
22.0%
fair +356

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R136.6%fair +173
Ends in R220.1%fair +396
Ends in R311.1%fair +803
Goes distance32.2%fair +211
How this fight plays out

The model makes Saint-Denis a solid 67% favorite. Expect Saint-Denis to chase the takedown (4.1/15 min at 41%) while Pimblett tries to keep it standing behind 46% takedown defense. Pimblett is most dangerous early — 6 of 10 tracked wins ended in the first round. Saint-Denis's most likely path is by submission (33%), and the fight goes the distance 32% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.