Probetrics — Sports Analytics
← UFC picksFight data: tape, stats, form, odds →

Akbar Abdullaev vs Ednilson Santos

7:00 PM ET· final
Save imageSquare
Model pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Akbar Abdullaevby KO/TKO77% to win · closed -2800
Result: Akbar Abdullaev by KO/TKO in Round 1 — model got the winner ✓
Probetrics fight model
Ednilson Santos
30% +229
Akbar Abdullaev
70% -229
How it ends
Santos by KO/TKO
3.6%
fair +2645
Santos by SUB
2.1%
fair +4667
Santos by DEC
24.6%
fair +306
Abdullaev by KO/TKO
57.7%
fair -136
Abdullaev by SUB
2.6%
fair +3679
Abdullaev by DEC
9.3%
fair +976

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R135.7%fair +180
Ends in R219.6%fair +410
Ends in R310.8%fair +827
Goes distance33.9%fair +195
How this fight plays out

The model makes Abdullaev a solid 70% favorite. Abdullaev is most dangerous early — 8 of 12 tracked wins ended in the first round. Abdullaev's most likely path is by KO/TKO (58%), and the fight goes the distance 34% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.