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Francisco Prado vs Ismael Bonfim

5:00 PM ET· scheduled

Short notice — this matchup was made 17 days out— the model prices time since a fighter's last bout, never how long they had to prepare for this one. The books do price it, so treat any gap between us and them on this fight as our blind spot, not their mistake.

Thin market — no sportsbook has priced this fight. Every probability below is model-only, with nothing to check it against.

Model pick

Ismael Bonfimby DEC

53% to win · 40% that it’s by DEC · 48% this goes the distance

Model fair price -115

Probetrics fight model

Ismael Bonfim

53% -115

Francisco Prado

47% +115

How it ends

Bonfim by KO/TKO

12.3%

fair +714

Bonfim by SUB

1.6%

fair +6171

Bonfim by DEC

39.5%

fair +153

Prado by KO/TKO

32.9%

fair +204

Prado by SUB

5.5%

fair +1706

Prado by DEC

8.1%

fair +1129

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends

Goes distance47.7%fair +110

How this fight plays out

The model makes Bonfim a narrow 53% favorite. On the feet, Bonfim sets the tempo — 4.9 significant strikes a minute to 3.8 — so Prado needs moments, not volume. Prado is most dangerous early — 5 of 7 tracked wins ended in the first round. Bonfim's most likely path is on the scorecards (40%), and the fight goes the distance 48% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 0 carries the most risk. The live danger for Bonfim: Prado finishes 50% of wins by submission and Bonfim has been submitted in 71% of losses.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.