Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Vitor Petrino vs Serghei Spivac

8:00 PM ET· final
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Model pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Vitor Petrinoby KO/TKO69% to win · closed -130
Result: Vitor Petrino by DEC in Round 3 — model got the winner ✓
Probetrics fight model
Serghei Spivac
29% +248
Vitor Petrino
71% -248
How it ends
Spivac by KO/TKO
4.9%
fair +1943
Spivac by SUB
13.7%
fair +632
Spivac by DEC
10.2%
fair +885
Petrino by KO/TKO
32.4%
fair +208
Petrino by SUB
7.7%
fair +1196
Petrino by DEC
31.2%
fair +221

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R131.7%fair +216
Ends in R217.4%fair +474
Ends in R39.6%fair +943
Goes distance41.3%fair +142
How this fight plays out

The model makes Petrino a clear 71% favorite. Striking volume is near even (3.8 vs 3.4 per minute), so the fight likely turns on damage rather than output. Spivac is most dangerous early — 3 of 7 tracked wins ended in the first round. Petrino's most likely path is by KO/TKO (32%), and the fight goes the distance 41% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk. The live danger for Petrino: Spivac finishes 44% of wins by submission and Petrino has been submitted in 50% of losses.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.