Probetrics — Sports Analytics
← UFC picksFight data: tape, stats, form, odds →

Navajo Stirling vs Jan Blachowicz

1:00 PM ET· final
Save imageSquare
Model pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Navajo Stirlingby DEC80% to win · closed -270
Result: Navajo Stirling by KO/TKO in Round 1 — model got the winner ✓
Probetrics fight model
Jan Blachowicz
16% +530
Navajo Stirling
84% -530
How it ends
Blachowicz by KO/TKO
8.1%
fair +1136
Blachowicz by SUB
0.7%
fair +15242
Blachowicz by DEC
7.1%
fair +1303
Stirling by KO/TKO
40.9%
fair +144
Stirling by SUB
5.7%
fair +1658
Stirling by DEC
37.5%
fair +167

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R129.9%fair +235
Ends in R216.4%fair +508
Ends in R39.0%fair +1006
Goes distance44.6%fair +124
How this fight plays out

The model makes Stirling a clear 84% favorite. On the feet, Stirling sets the tempo — 6.1 significant strikes a minute to 3.6 — so Blachowicz needs moments, not volume. Stirling's most likely path is by KO/TKO (41%), and the fight goes the distance 45% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.