Football · CFB →
NFL · Week 1
Three calls on every game — winner, spread, total — from one forecast, locked before kickoff and graded after. 16 of 16 locked.
New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks
Wed, Sep 9, 8:20 PM ET · Lumen Field · 76° · Mostly sunny
SEA -3.5 · O/U 44.5
NE +150 · SEA -180
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Solid
SEA -180
67%
model margin SEA by 6.0
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean
SEA -3.5
51%
2.5 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Under 44.5
51%
model total 41.2
Elo NE 1594 · SEA 1669
San Francisco 49ers vs Los Angeles Rams
Thu, Sep 10, 8:35 PM ET · Melbourne Cricket Ground · Indoors
LAR -3.5 · O/U 48.5
SF +160 · LAR -192
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Lean
LAR -192
56%
model margin LAR by 2.2
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean
SF +3.5
51%
1.3 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Over 48.5
53%
model total 55.2
Elo SF 1558 · LAR 1606
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals
Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET · Paycor Stadium · 91° · Mostly cloudy
CIN -3.5 · O/U 50.5
TB +170 · CIN -205
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Lean
CIN -205
58%
model margin CIN by 2.6
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Coin flip
TB +3.5
50%
0.9 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Coin flip
Under 50.5
50%
model total 49.6
Elo TB 1477 · CIN 1477
New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions
Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET · Ford Field · Indoors
DET -7 · O/U 49.5
NO +250 · DET -310
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Strong
DET -310
72%
model margin DET by 7.7
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Coin flip
DET -7
50%
0.7 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Under 49.5
51%
model total 46.0
Elo NO 1437 · DET 1551
New York Jets at Tennessee Titans
Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET · Nissan Stadium · 92° · Mostly cloudy w/ t-storms
TEN -1.5 · O/U 39.5
NYJ +110 · TEN -130
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Lean
TEN -130
57%
model margin TEN by 2.4
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Coin flip
TEN -1.5
50%
0.9 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Over 39.5
53%
model total 47.7
Elo NYJ 1360 · TEN 1356
Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts
Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET · Lucas Oil Stadium · Indoors
BAL -3.5 · O/U 48.5
BAL -175 · IND +145
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Lean
BAL -175
52%
model margin BAL by 0.8
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean
IND +3.5
51%
2.7 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean
Over 48.5
51%
model total 51.4
Elo BAL 1540 · IND 1466
Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers
Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET · Acrisure Stadium · 86° · Mostly cloudy
PIT -3.5 · O/U 42.5
ATL +154 · PIT -185
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Solid
PIT -185
62%
model margin PIT by 4.3
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Coin flip
PIT -3.5
50%
0.8 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Coin flip
Under 42.5
50%
model total 42.3
Elo ATL 1471 · PIT 1509
Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers
Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET · Bank of America Stadium · 86° · Mostly sunny
CHI -2.5 · O/U 47.5
CHI -148 · CAR +124
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Lean
CHI -148
56%
model margin CHI by 1.9
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Coin flip
CAR +2.5
50%
0.6 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Under 47.5
52%
model total 42.8
Elo CHI 1528 · CAR 1430
Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars
Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET · EverBank Stadium · 92° · Intermittent clouds
JAX -7.5 · O/U 40.5
CLE +320 · JAX -410
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Strong
JAX -410
75%
model margin JAX by 9.1
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean
JAX -7.5
51%
1.6 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Coin flip
Under 40.5
50%
model total 40.3
Elo CLE 1422 · JAX 1567
Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans
Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET · Reliant Stadium · Indoors
BUF -1.5 · O/U 44.5
BUF -118 · HOU -102
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Lean
HOU -102
57%
model margin HOU by 2.5
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
HOU +1.5
52%
4.0 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Over 44.5
52%
model total 48.3
Elo BUF 1604 · HOU 1604
Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders
Sun, Sep 13, 4:25 PM ET · Allegiant Stadium · Indoors
LV -3.5 · O/U 40.5
MIA +164 · LV -198
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Lean
MIA +164
57%
model margin MIA by 2.3
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
MIA +3.5
53%
5.8 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Coin flip
Over 40.5
50%
model total 41.4
Elo MIA 1456 · LV 1349
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings
Sun, Sep 13, 4:25 PM ET · U.S. Bank Stadium · Indoors
MIN -1.5 · O/U 46.5
GB +102 · MIN -122
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Solid
MIN -122
60%
model margin MIN by 3.6
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean
MIN -1.5
51%
2.1 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Under 46.5
54%
model total 37.9
Elo GB 1525 · MIN 1548
Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles
Sun, Sep 13, 4:25 PM ET · Lincoln Financial Field · 85° · Intermittent clouds
PHI -5.5 · O/U 44.5
WSH +180 · PHI -218
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Solid
PHI -218
69%
model margin PHI by 6.8
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean
PHI -5.5
51%
1.3 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Under 44.5
51%
model total 41.3
Elo WSH 1461 · PHI 1555
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers
Sun, Sep 13, 4:25 PM ET · SoFi Stadium · Indoors
LAC -10.5 · O/U 46.5
ARI +425 · LAC -575
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Strong
LAC -575
74%
model margin LAC by 8.7
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean
ARI +10.5
51%
1.8 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Under 46.5
52%
model total 41.7
Elo ARI 1390 · LAC 1524
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants
Sun, Sep 13, 8:20 PM ET · MetLife Stadium · 79° · Intermittent clouds
DAL -2.5 · O/U 48.5
DAL -148 · NYG +124
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Lean
NYG +124
53%
model margin NYG by 1.1
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
NYG +2.5
52%
3.6 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Over 48.5
52%
model total 53.0
Elo DAL 1454 · NYG 1423
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs
Mon, Sep 14, 8:15 PM ET · Arrowhead Stadium · 85° · Sunny
KC -3 · O/U 42.5
DEN +124 · KC -148
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Lean
DEN +124
58%
model margin DEN by 2.8
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
DEN +3
53%
5.8 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Under 42.5
52%
model total 36.7
Elo DEN 1604 · KC 1486
Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated. Spread and total calls are model leans: in backtest the NFL model covers about 49% against closing lines, so they are tracked here in public, not sold as an edge — see the track record. Informational only. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.