Probetrics — Sports Analytics

Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs Seokhyeon Ko

5:00 PM ET· final
Model pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Seokhyeon Koby KO/TKO51% to win · closed -156
Result: Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani by DEC in Round 3 — model missed ✗
Probetrics fight model
Seokhyeon Ko
35% +187
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani
65% -187
How it ends
Ko by KO/TKO
16.6%
fair +503
Ko by SUB
1.8%
fair +5509
Ko by DEC
16.5%
fair +507
Lebosnoyani by KO/TKO
26.2%
fair +281
Lebosnoyani by SUB
6.9%
fair +1348
Lebosnoyani by DEC
32.0%
fair +212

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R127.8%fair +260
Ends in R215.3%fair +554
Ends in R38.4%fair +1089
Goes distance48.5%fair +106
How this fight plays out

The model makes Lebosnoyani a solid 65% favorite. Striking volume is near even (3.4 vs 4.2 per minute), so the fight likely turns on damage rather than output. Lebosnoyani is most dangerous early — 7 of 10 tracked wins ended in the first round. Lebosnoyani's most likely path is on the scorecards (32%), and the fight goes the distance 48% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk. The live danger for Lebosnoyani: 46% of Ko's wins come by knockout and 100% of Lebosnoyani's losses have come the same way.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.