Probetrics — Sports Analytics

Mandel Nallo vs Nate Landwehr

8:00 PM ET· scheduled
Thin market — no sportsbook has priced this fight. Every probability below is model-only, with nothing to check it against.
Model pickThe fight model's single most likely outcome: predicted winner, their most likely method of victory, and whether it ends inside the distance. Full probability breakdown below.
Mandel Nalloby KO/TKO~ Round 1
74% to win · 48% that it’s by KO/TKO · 90% it ends inside the distance, most likely around Round 1
Model fair price -281
Probetrics fight model
Nate Landwehr
26% +281
Mandel Nallo
74% -281
How it ends
Landwehr by KO/TKO
14.8%
fair +576
Landwehr by SUB
8.8%
fair +1031
Landwehr by DEC
2.6%
fair +3708
Nallo by KO/TKO
48.1%
fair +108
Nallo by SUB
18.3%
fair +447
Nallo by DEC
7.4%
fair +1256

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R148.6%fair +106
Ends in R226.7%fair +274
Ends in R314.7%fair +580
Goes distance10.0%fair +900
How this fight plays out

The model makes Nallo a clear 74% favorite. Striking volume is near even (5.4 vs 5.3 per minute), so the fight likely turns on damage rather than output. Nallo is most dangerous early — 7 of 7 tracked wins ended in the first round. Nallo's most likely path is by KO/TKO (48%), and the fight goes the distance 10% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk. The live danger for Nallo: 50% of Landwehr's wins come by knockout and 75% of Nallo's losses have come the same way.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.