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Nate Landwehr vs Mandel Nallo Prediction · UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott, Oct 17, 2026

Fight data

Model pick: Mandel Nallo (71%), locked before the start; Mandel Nallo won (graded a hit).

Final8:00 PM ETUFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott · Lightweight
Nate Landwehr18-9
Mandel Nallo15-4

The model's call

Locked before the fight
71%Mandel Nalloby KO/TKO✓ Hit

Where a bout is priced, the win chance is the market's no-vig price.

Result
Mandel Nallo
By KO/TKO in round 2
Closing price
-275
Right at this confidence
72%
Won 31 of 43 called at 70–80%

How it endsThe model's chance of each ending beside the books', round by round and by method.

prices before the fightModel vs market

The model's numbers here are recomputed from today's data; the pick locked before the fight is at the top.

KO/TKOSUBDEC
Nallo
Landwehr

Big number: the model's chance of that ending. Small number under it: the books' no-vig chance (— where they don't price it). Tap a cell for fair and best prices.

Fight clock · still going
10% reach the final bell (books 13%)
0255075100R1R2R3o1.5dist.512510Ended R2 0:47

Solid: the model. Dashed: the books' map. ◇ = a separate two-way price for the same thing: over 1.5 rounds 33% · goes the distance 14%.

Their tracked fights before this one
History
Nallo0 of 10 to the judges

7-3 in the last 10. 7 of 7 wins inside the distance; 3 of 3 losses were finishes.

  • LKO/TKO · R1vs Jai HerbertApr 2026
  • WKO/TKO · R1vs Samuel SilvaSep 2025
  • WSubmission · R1Samourai MMA 11: Chapitre 11Aug 2024
  • WKO/TKO · R1BTC 24: ApexJun 2024
  • WSubmission · R1MMA Mexico 1: Nallo vs. CanadaJul 2023
Landwehr3 of 10 to the judges

5-5 in the last 10. 3 of 5 wins inside the distance; 4 of 5 losses were finishes.

  • LKO/TKO · R1vs Cub SwansonApr 2026
  • LKO/TKO · R3vs Morgan CharrièreJul 2025
  • LKO/TKO · R3vs Dooho ChoiDec 2024
  • WKO/TKO · R1vs Jamall EmmersMar 2024
  • LDecisionvs Dan IgeJun 2023

3 of 20 of their tracked fights went the distance. For this one, the model gave 10% that it goes the distance, the books 13%. History, not a forecast.

How this fight plays outThe model's read of the matchup, in plain sentences from its numbers.

No price is posted for this fight, so the win chance is the model's own: Nallo clear at 75%. Striking volume is near even (5.4 vs 5.3 per minute), so the fight likely turns on damage rather than output. Nallo is most dangerous early — 7 of 8 tracked wins ended in the first round. Nallo's most likely path is by KO/TKO (52%), and the fight goes the distance 10% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk. The live danger for Nallo: 50% of Landwehr's wins come by knockout and 75% of Nallo's losses have come the same way.

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Where a bout is priced, the win chance is the sportsbooks' no-vig price. The model's own read (recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup) was tested on fights it was not tuned on and decides bouts nobody has priced. Model reads, not personalized advice. Data and analytics only, not betting advice: any bet is your own decision, and we are not responsible for losses. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. Sportsbook links are plain links, not affiliate links: no sportsbook pays us.