Francesco Nuzzi vs Xiao Long
3:00 AM ET· finalModel pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Francesco Nuzziby KO/TKO54% to win · closed +158
Result: Francesco Nuzzi by KO/TKO in Round 1 — model got the winner ✓
Probetrics fight model
Xiao Long
40% +151
Francesco Nuzzi
60% -151
How it ends
Long by KO/TKO
9.7%
fair +933
Long by SUB
2.7%
fair +3557
Long by DEC
27.4%
fair +265
Nuzzi by KO/TKO
33.9%
fair +195
Nuzzi by SUB
2.5%
fair +3875
Nuzzi by DEC
23.8%
fair +320
“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.
When it ends
Ends in R126.3%fair +280
Ends in R214.5%fair +590
Ends in R38.0%fair +1155
Goes distance51.2%fair -105
How this fight plays out
The model makes Nuzzi a solid 60% favorite. Nuzzi is most dangerous early — 7 of 9 tracked wins ended in the first round. Nuzzi's most likely path is by KO/TKO (34%), and the fight goes the distance 51% of the time.
Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.
Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.