Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Muhammad Said vs Dustin Jacoby

9:00 AM ET· final
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Model pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Muhammad Saidby KO/TKO67% to win · closed +172
Result: Muhammad Said by KO/TKO in Round 2 — model got the winner ✓
Probetrics fight model
Dustin Jacoby
25% +302
Muhammad Said
75% -302
How it ends
Jacoby by KO/TKO
21.0%
fair +376
Jacoby by SUB
1.3%
fair +7835
Jacoby by DEC
2.6%
fair +3766
Said by KO/TKO
48.5%
fair +106
Said by SUB
5.8%
fair +1627
Said by DEC
20.8%
fair +380

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R141.3%fair +142
Ends in R222.7%fair +340
Ends in R312.5%fair +700
Goes distance23.4%fair +327
How this fight plays out

The model makes Said a clear 75% favorite. Striking volume is near even (5.8 vs 4.9 per minute), so the fight likely turns on damage rather than output. Said is most dangerous early — 4 of 10 tracked wins ended in the first round. Said's most likely path is by KO/TKO (49%), and the fight goes the distance 23% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.