Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Sam Patterson vs Santiago Ponzinibbio

9:00 AM ET· final
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Model pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Sam Pattersonby KO/TKO67% to win · closed -426
Result: Sam Patterson by KO/TKO in Round 2 — model got the winner ✓
Probetrics fight model
Santiago Ponzinibbio
27% +273
Sam Patterson
73% -273
How it ends
Ponzinibbio by KO/TKO
23.6%
fair +323
Ponzinibbio by SUB
0.5%
fair +19594
Ponzinibbio by DEC
2.7%
fair +3631
Patterson by KO/TKO
55.1%
fair -123
Patterson by SUB
10.7%
fair +831
Patterson by DEC
7.3%
fair +1266

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R148.6%fair +106
Ends in R226.7%fair +274
Ends in R314.7%fair +580
Goes distance10.0%fair +900
How this fight plays out

The model makes Patterson a clear 73% favorite. Ponzinibbio will out-work him on volume (4.9 vs 3.7/min) — Patterson's route is a finish, not a points battle. Patterson is most dangerous early — 5 of 11 tracked wins ended in the first round. Patterson's most likely path is by KO/TKO (55%), and the fight goes the distance 10% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk. The live danger for Patterson: 55% of Ponzinibbio's wins come by knockout and 67% of Patterson's losses have come the same way.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.