Chelsea Chandler vs Melissa Croden Prediction · UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott, Oct 17, 2026
Fight dataModel pick: Melissa Croden (75%), locked before the start; Chelsea Chandler won (graded a miss).
The model's call
Locked before the fightWhere a bout is priced, the win chance is the market's no-vig price.
- Result
- Chelsea Chandler
- By submission in round 1
- Closing price
- -335
- Right at this confidence
- 72%
- Won 31 of 43 called at 70–80%
How it endsThe model's chance of each ending beside the books', round by round and by method.
The model's numbers here are recomputed from today's data; the pick locked before the fight is at the top.
Big number: the model's chance of that ending. Small number under it: the books' no-vig chance (— where they don't price it). Tap a cell for fair and best prices.
Solid: the model. Dashed: the books' map. ◇ = a separate two-way price for the same thing: over 2.5 rounds 59% · goes the distance 53%.
7-3 in the last 10. 6 of 7 wins inside the distance; 0 of 3 losses were finishes.
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7-3 in the last 10. 4 of 7 wins inside the distance; 1 of 3 losses were finishes.
- WSubmission · R1vs Priscila CachoeiraJun 2026
- LKO/TKO · R1vs Joselyne EdwardsApr 2025
- LDecisionvs Yana SantosAug 2024
- WDecisionvs Josiane NunesMar 2024
- LDecisionvs Norma DumontJul 2023
9 of 20 of their tracked fights went the distance. For this one, the model gave 50% that it goes the distance, the books 49%. History, not a forecast.
How this fight plays outThe model's read of the matchup, in plain sentences from its numbers.
No price is posted for this fight, so the win chance is the model's own: Croden clear at 74%. Expect Croden to chase the takedown (1.9/15 min at 50%) while Chandler tries to keep it standing behind 25% takedown defense. Chandler is most dangerous early — 4 of 8 tracked wins ended in the first round. Croden's most likely path is on the scorecards (38%), and the fight goes the distance 50% of the time.
Where a bout is priced, the win chance is the sportsbooks' no-vig price. The model's own read (recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup) was tested on fights it was not tuned on and decides bouts nobody has priced. Model reads, not personalized advice. Data and analytics only, not betting advice: any bet is your own decision, and we are not responsible for losses. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. Sportsbook links are plain links, not affiliate links: no sportsbook pays us.