Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Melissa Croden vs Chelsea Chandler

5:00 PM ET· scheduled
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Thin market — no sportsbook has priced this fight. Every probability below is model-only, with nothing to check it against.
Model pickThe fight model's single most likely outcome: predicted winner, their most likely method of victory, and whether it ends inside the distance. Full probability breakdown below.
Melissa Crodenby DEC
79% to win · 40% that it’s by DEC · 54% this goes the distance
Model fair price -373
Probetrics fight model
Chelsea Chandler
21% +373
Melissa Croden
79% -373
How it ends
Chandler by KO/TKO
3.4%
fair +2870
Chandler by SUB
3.7%
fair +2582
Chandler by DEC
14.0%
fair +612
Croden by KO/TKO
33.3%
fair +200
Croden by SUB
5.3%
fair +1776
Croden by DEC
40.2%
fair +149

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R124.7%fair +305
Ends in R213.6%fair +637
Ends in R37.5%fair +1239
Goes distance54.3%fair -119
How this fight plays out

The model makes Croden a clear 79% favorite. Expect Croden to chase the takedown (1.9/15 min at 50%) while Chandler tries to keep it standing behind 25% takedown defense. Chandler is most dangerous early — 3 of 7 tracked wins ended in the first round. Croden's most likely path is on the scorecards (40%), and the fight goes the distance 54% of the time.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.