Atlanta Falcons
2026: 8-9 (last season) · Elo 1470 · #19 of 32 · 20.8 for, 23.6 against · ATS 9-8
Rating trajectory The model's Elo after each week, this season in blue and last season in grey. 1500 is league average; every 22 (NFL) or 18 (college) points is about one point of spread.
Model on this team
No locked picks graded yet this season.
How they play
- Pass rate
- 56%
- Early-down pass rate
- 50%
- Neutral-script pass rate
- 52%
- Pass rate over expected
- −6.2%
- Seconds per play
- 29.3
- No-huddle
- 11%
- Shotgun
- 81%
- Play-action rate
- 20%
- RPO rate
- 5%
Offense · best and worst (of 32)
- YAC / completion
- #5 · 5.6
- Sack rate
- #5 · 4.5%
- Explosive rush rate
- #5 · 11.6%
- Interception rate
- #6 · 1.5%
- Third-down conversion
- #29 · 34%
- Completion % over expected
- #28 · −3.2
- EPA / dropback
- #21 · +0.01
- EPA / rush
- #20 · −0.06
Defense · best and worst (of 32)
- Sack rate generated
- #4 · 9.1%
- Interceptions forced
- #5 · 3.0%
- Completion % over expected
- #7 · −2.2
- Takeaways / game
- #11 · 1.24
- EPA / rush
- #24 · −0.02
- Yards / rush
- #23 · 4.4
- Rush success rate
- #23 · 43%
- Explosive pass rate
- #21 · 8.5%
Atlanta Falcons · key players
- Michael Penix Jr. QBQuestionable18.4/30.7 · 220 yds/g · 9-3 TD-INT · +0.02 EPA/db
- Kyle Pitts TE6.9 tgt/g · 23% share · 55 yds/g · 5 TD · aDOT 7.4
- Drake London WR9.3 tgt/g · 30% share · 77 yds/g · 7 TD · aDOT 10.9
- Darnell Mooney WR4.8 tgt/g · 16% share · 30 yds/g · 1 TD · aDOT 14.2
- David Sills WR3.0 tgt/g · 10% share · 16 yds/g · 2 TD · aDOT 11.2
- Bijan Robinson RB16.9 car/g · 87 yds/g · 5.1 ypc · 7 TD · −0.04 EPA/car
- Tyler Allgeier RB8.4 car/g · 30 yds/g · 3.6 ypc · 8 TD · −0.08 EPA/car
2025 season, per game. Targets ranked by volume, rushers by carries.nflverse weekly player stats. Target share is the player's average share of his team's targets in the games he played. A player who changed teams carries his own games from last season.
2026 schedule
| Date | Opponent | Result | Line | Model | ATS | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13W1 | at Pittsburgh Steelers | — | +3.5 | PIT 58% | — | — |
| Sep 20W2 | vs Carolina Panthers | — | -1.5 | — | — | — |
| Sep 24W3 | at Green Bay Packers | — | +7.5 | — | — | — |
| Oct 5W4 | at New Orleans Saints | — | +2.5 | — | — | — |
| Oct 11W5 | vs Baltimore Ravens | — | +4.5 | — | — | — |
| Oct 18W6 | vs Chicago Bears | — | +3 | — | — | — |
| Oct 25W7 | vs San Francisco 49ers | — | +4.5 | — | — | — |
| Nov 1W8 | at Tampa Bay Buccaneers | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nov 8W9 | vs Cincinnati Bengals | — | +4.5 | — | — | — |
| Nov 15W10 | vs Kansas City Chiefs | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nov 29W12 | at Minnesota Vikings | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dec 6W13 | vs Detroit Lions | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dec 13W14 | at Cleveland Browns | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dec 20W15 | at Washington Commanders | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dec 27W16 | vsTampa Bay Buccaneers | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jan 3W17 | vsNew Orleans Saints | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jan 10W18 | atCarolina Panthers | — | — | — | — | — |
Line is this team's spread. Model, ATS and CLV are shown only for picks locked before kickoff; 0 played.