Football · Board
Every game against the live lines
NFL week 1 and college week 1. Click a column to sort. Every edge column is the model’s number minus the market’s: for the winner it is the gap in win probability (model 60% against a market 50% shows as +10%), for the spread and total it is points, shown for the side the model takes. Bigger gaps deserve more skepticism, not less.
| Pick | Sharp | Best ML | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
  WSU at #17 WASHCFBLive | WASH | 79% | 92% | -13.0% | WASH -24 | WASH -14.0 | WSU +10.0 | 53% | 51.5 | 46.2 | U +5.3 | 52% | WASH ▲1.0Over ▲0.5 | 7 | -1887 pinnacle | In progress |
  WIS vs #4 NDCFBSun 7:30 PM | ND | 91% | 91% | -0.4% | ND -21 | ND -22.9 | ND +1.9 | 51% | 46U 46.5 · fanduel | 44.6 | U +1.4 | 50% | — | 7 | -1538 pinnacle | — |
  #24 LOU vs #9 MISSCFBSun 7:30 PM | MISS | 72% | 69% | +2.8% | MISS -6.5 | MISS -10.0 | MISS +3.5 | 51% | 55.5O 55 · betonlineag | 58.5 | O +3.0 | 51% | — | 7 | -250 betonlineag | — |
  #19 SMU at FSUCFBMon 7:30 PM | SMU | 58% | 57% | +1.0% | FSU +3SMU -2.5 · fanduel | SMU -3.7 | SMU +0.7 | 50% | 53U 53.5 · betmgm | 51.3 | U +1.7 | 51% | — | 7 | -145 bovada | — |
  NE at SEANFLWed 8:20 PM | SEA | 71% | 62% | +8.6% | SEA -3.5 | SEA -7.4 | SEA +3.9 | 52% | 44.5 | 41.2 | U +3.3 | 51% | — | 7 | -177 pinnacle | — |
  SF vs LARNFLThu 8:35 PM | LAR | 59% | 64% | -4.9% | LAR -3.5 | LAR -3.0 | SF +0.5 | 50% | 48 | 55.2 | O +7.2 | 53% | — | 7 | -185 betonlineag | — |
  TB at CINNFLSun 1:00 PM | CIN | 60% | 65% | -5.2% | CIN -3.5TB +4 · betonlineag | CIN -3.3 | TB +0.2 | 50% | 50.5U 51.5 · bovada | 49.6 | U +0.9 | 50% | — | 7 | -200 betmgm | — |
  NO at DETNFLSun 1:00 PM | DET | 69% | 73% | -4.0% | DET -7 | DET -6.8 | NO +0.2 | 50% | 50U 50.5 · pinnacle | 46.0 | U +4.0 | 52% | — | 7 | -300 betmgm | — |
  NYJ at TENNFLSun 1:00 PM | TEN | 57% | 54% | +3.8% | TEN -1.5TEN PK · betonlineag | TEN -2.5 | TEN +1.0 | 50% | 39.25 | 47.7 | O +8.5 | 54% | NYJ | 7 | -122 pinnacle | — |
  BAL at INDNFLSun 1:00 PM | BAL | 56% | 62% | -5.8% | IND +3.5 | BAL -1.9 | IND +1.6 | 51% | 48O 47.5 · pinnacle | 51.4 | O +3.4 | 51% | — | 7 | -171 betonlineag | — |
  ATL at PITNFLSun 1:00 PM | PIT | 58% | 62% | -3.9% | PIT -3.5 | PIT -2.8 | ATL +0.7 | 50% | 42O 41.5 · betonlineag | 42.3 | O +0.3 | 50% | Under | 7 | -178 fanduel | — |
  CHI at CARNFLSun 1:00 PM | CHI | 58% | 58% | -0.5% | CAR +2.75 | CHI -2.7 | CAR +0.1 | 50% | 47U 47.5 · draftkings | 42.8 | U +4.2 | 52% | — | 7 | -152 betonlineag | — |
  CLE at JAXNFLSun 1:00 PM | JAX | 75% | 77% | -2.3% | JAX -7.5 | JAX -9.0 | JAX +1.5 | 51% | 40.5 | 40.3 | U +0.2 | 50% | — | 7 | -375 betmgm | — |
  BUF at HOUNFLSun 1:00 PM | HOU | 53% | 49% | +4.4% | HOU +1HOU +1.5 · draftkings | HOU -1.1 | HOU +2.1 | 51% | 44.5O 44 · pinnacle | 48.3 | O +3.8 | 52% | HOU | 7 | -102 draftkings | — |
  MIA at LVNFLSun 4:25 PM | MIA | 54% | 38% | +15.9% | LV -3.5 | MIA -1.3 | MIA +4.8 | 52% | 40.5 | 41.4 | O +0.9 | 50% | — | 7 | +164 draftkings | — |
  GB at MINNFLSun 4:25 PM | MIN | 64% | 53% | +11.6% | MIN -1.5MIN -1 · betonlineag | MIN -4.9 | MIN +3.4 | 52% | 46U 46.5 · draftkings | 37.9 | U +8.1 | 53% | GB | 7 | -118 fanduel | — |
  WSH at PHINFLSun 4:25 PM | PHI | 68% | 67% | +1.1% | PHI -5PHI -4.5 · bovada | PHI -6.5 | PHI +1.5 | 51% | 44.5 | 41.3 | U +3.2 | 51% | — | 7 | -218 draftkings | — |
  ARI at LACNFLSun 4:25 PM | LAC | 74% | 81% | -6.8% | LAC -10ARI +10.5 · betmgm | LAC -8.7 | ARI +1.3 | 51% | 47U 47.5 · betonlineag | 41.7 | U +5.3 | 52% | Over | 7 | -513 pinnacle | — |
  DAL at NYGNFLSun 8:20 PM | NYG | 54% | 41% | +12.4% | NYG +3 | NYG -1.2 | NYG +4.2 | 52% | 48.5O 47.5 · pinnacle | 53.0 | O +4.5 | 52% | Under | 7 | +139 pinnacle | — |
  DEN at KCNFLMon 8:15 PM | DEN | 52% | 43% | +9.2% | KC -2.5DEN +3 · draftkings | DEN -0.8 | DEN +3.3 | 51% | 43.25 | 36.7 | U +6.5 | 53% | — | 7 | +130 bovada | — |
Market numbers are the multi-book consensus, refreshed hourly; the winner market probability is devigged from the consensus moneyline. Cover and over probabilities are the model’s normal on its margin and total against the current line. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are leans tracked in public. Informational only. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.