Probetrics — Sports Analytics

Tennessee Titans

2026: 3-14 (last season) · Elo 1353 · #31 of 32 · 16.7 for, 28.1 against · ATS 7-10

Next: vs NYJ · Sep 13

Rating trajectory The model's Elo after each week, this season in blue and last season in grey. 1500 is league average; every 22 (NFL) or 18 (college) points is about one point of spread.

13531500 = average

Model on this team

No locked picks graded yet this season.

How they play

Pass rate
65%
Early-down pass rate
59%
Neutral-script pass rate
52%
Pass rate over expected
−3.9%
Seconds per play
29.8
No-huddle
10%
Shotgun
73%
Play-action rate
19%
RPO rate
11%

Offense · best and worst (of 32)

Interception rate
#5 · 1.4%
Red-zone touchdown rate
#14 · 58%
Turnovers / game
#15 · 1.12
Explosive rush rate
#16 · 9.7%
Third-down conversion
#32 · 32%
Yards / dropback
#31 · 4.6
Pass success rate
#31 · 37%
EPA / dropback
#31 · −0.20

Defense · best and worst (of 32)

Rush success rate
#9 · 40%
Sack rate generated
#10 · 7.0%
Explosive rush rate
#17 · 9.4%
Yards / rush
#18 · 4.2
Completion % over expected
#30 · +6.1
Yards / dropback
#30 · 7.1
Explosive pass rate
#30 · 10.1%
Takeaways / game
#29 · 0.71

Tennessee Titans · key players

  • Cam Ward QB19.0/31.8 · 186 yds/g · 15-7 TD-INT · −0.18 EPA/db
  • Elic Ayomanor WR5.6 tgt/g · 18% share · 32 yds/g · 4 TD · aDOT 12.7
  • Chig Okonkwo TE4.6 tgt/g · 15% share · 33 yds/g · 2 TD · aDOT 4.6
  • Chimere Dike WR4.4 tgt/g · 14% share · 25 yds/g · 4 TD · aDOT 8.1
  • Gunnar Helm TE3.4 tgt/g · 11% share · 22 yds/g · 2 TD · aDOT 5.5
  • Tony Pollard RB14.2 car/g · 64 yds/g · 4.5 ypc · 5 TD · −0.09 EPA/car
  • Tyjae Spears RB5.5 car/g · 22 yds/g · 3.9 ypc · 2 TD · −0.05 EPA/car

2025 season, per game. Targets ranked by volume, rushers by carries.nflverse weekly player stats. Target share is the player's average share of his team's targets in the games he played. A player who changed teams carries his own games from last season.

2026 schedule
DateOpponentResultLineModelATSCLV
Sep 13W1vsNew York Jets-1.5TEN 57%
Sep 20W2vsPhiladelphia Eagles+4.5
Sep 27W3atNew York Giants+3
Oct 4W4atBaltimore Ravens+8.5
Oct 11W5vsHouston Texans+3.5
Oct 18W6atIndianapolis Colts+3.5
Oct 25W7vsCleveland Browns
Nov 1W8atCincinnati Bengals
Nov 15W10vsJacksonville Jaguars
Nov 22W11atDallas Cowboys
Nov 29W12atJacksonville Jaguars
Dec 6W13vsWashington Commanders
Dec 13W14atDetroit Lions
Dec 20W15vsIndianapolis Colts
Dec 27W16atLas Vegas Raiders
Jan 3W17vsPittsburgh Steelers
Jan 10W18atHouston Texans

Line is this team's spread. Model, ATS and CLV are shown only for picks locked before kickoff; 0 played.