Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2026: 8-9 (last season) · Elo 1477 · #18 of 32 · 22.4 for, 24.2 against · ATS 5-12
Rating trajectory The model's Elo after each week, this season in blue and last season in grey. 1500 is league average; every 22 (NFL) or 18 (college) points is about one point of spread.
Model on this team
No locked picks graded yet this season.
How they play
- Pass rate
- 60%
- Early-down pass rate
- 54%
- Neutral-script pass rate
- 52%
- Pass rate over expected
- −3.5%
- Seconds per play
- 30.6
- No-huddle
- 6%
- Shotgun
- 66%
- Play-action rate
- 17%
- RPO rate
- 8%
Offense · best and worst (of 32)
- YAC / completion
- #6 · 5.6
- Explosive pass rate
- #8 · 9.4%
- Turnovers / game
- #8 · 0.94
- Third-down conversion
- #11 · 41%
- Yards / rush
- #27 · 3.8
- Explosive rush rate
- #26 · 8.1%
- Completion % over expected
- #25 · −2.5
- EPA / rush
- #24 · −0.08
Defense · best and worst (of 32)
- Rush success rate
- #2 · 36%
- EPA / rush
- #5 · −0.11
- Takeaways / game
- #8 · 1.29
- Third-down conversion
- #13 · 40%
- Red-zone touchdown rate
- #32 · 70%
- Completion % over expected
- #28 · +2.5
- YAC / completion
- #27 · 5.7
- Pass success rate
- #27 · 50%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers · key players
- Baker Mayfield QB20.2/31.9 · 217 yds/g · 26-11 TD-INT · +0.00 EPA/db
- Emeka Egbuka WRQuestionable7.5 tgt/g · 24% share · 55 yds/g · 6 TD · aDOT 12.4
- Cade Otton TE5.4 tgt/g · 17% share · 38 yds/g · 1 TD · aDOT 5.2
- Mike Evans WR7.8 tgt/g · 24% share · 46 yds/g · 3 TD · aDOT 13.3
- Sterling Shepard WR4.1 tgt/g · 13% share · 29 yds/g · 1 TD · aDOT 8.5
- Bucky Irving RB17.3 car/g · 59 yds/g · 3.4 ypc · 1 TD · −0.21 EPA/car
- Rachaad White RB7.8 car/g · 34 yds/g · 4.3 ypc · 4 TD · +0.08 EPA/car
2025 season, per game. Targets ranked by volume, rushers by carries.nflverse weekly player stats. Target share is the player's average share of his team's targets in the games he played. A player who changed teams carries his own games from last season.
2026 schedule
| Date | Opponent | Result | Line | Model | ATS | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13W1 | at Cincinnati Bengals | — | +3.75 | CIN 60% | — | — |
| Sep 20W2 | vs Cleveland Browns | — | -6.5 | — | — | — |
| Sep 27W3 | vs Minnesota Vikings | — | — | — | — | — |
| Oct 4W4 | vs Green Bay Packers | — | +1.5 | — | — | — |
| Oct 8W5 | at Dallas Cowboys | — | +3.5 | — | — | — |
| Oct 18W6 | vs Pittsburgh Steelers | — | -1.5 | — | — | — |
| Oct 25W7 | at Carolina Panthers | — | -1.5 | — | — | — |
| Nov 1W8 | vs Atlanta Falcons | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nov 8W9 | at Chicago Bears | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nov 22W11 | at Detroit Lions | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nov 30W12 | vsCarolina Panthers | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dec 6W13 | vs Los Angeles Chargers | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dec 13W14 | at Baltimore Ravens | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dec 20W15 | vs New Orleans Saints | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dec 27W16 | atAtlanta Falcons | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jan 3W17 | vs Los Angeles Rams | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jan 10W18 | atNew Orleans Saints | — | — | — | — | — |
Line is this team's spread. Model, ATS and CLV are shown only for picks locked before kickoff; 0 played.