Denver Broncos
2026: 15-4 (last season) · Elo 1597 · #4 of 32 · 23.2 for, 18.5 against · ATS 9-10
Rating trajectory The model's Elo after each week, this season in blue and last season in grey. 1500 is league average; every 22 (NFL) or 18 (college) points is about one point of spread.
Model on this team
No locked picks graded yet this season.
How they play
- Pass rate
- 63%
- Early-down pass rate
- 57%
- Neutral-script pass rate
- 59%
- Pass rate over expected
- +1.7%
- Seconds per play
- 29.2
- No-huddle
- 13%
- Shotgun
- 66%
- Play-action rate
- 24%
- RPO rate
- 9%
Offense · best and worst (of 32)
- Sack rate
- #2 · 3.4%
- Interception rate
- #10 · 1.9%
- Rush success rate
- #10 · 43%
- Turnovers / game
- #11 · 0.95
- Pass success rate
- #24 · 43%
- Completion % over expected
- #23 · −1.7
- Red-zone touchdown rate
- #22 · 56%
- EPA / rush
- #19 · −0.06
Defense · best and worst (of 32)
- Yards / dropback
- #1 · 5.0
- Sack rate generated
- #1 · 9.9%
- Pass success rate
- #2 · 38%
- Rush success rate
- #3 · 37%
- Takeaways / game
- #22 · 0.95
- Interceptions forced
- #20 · 1.9%
- EPA / rush
- #10 · −0.09
- EPA / dropback
- #7 · −0.07
Denver Broncos · key players
- Bo Nix QB23.0/36.6 · 234 yds/g · 28-12 TD-INT · +0.10 EPA/db
- Courtland Sutton WR7.3 tgt/g · 21% share · 57 yds/g · 8 TD · aDOT 12.3
- Troy Franklin WR6.1 tgt/g · 18% share · 42 yds/g · 6 TD · aDOT 12.7
- Evan Engram TE4.6 tgt/g · 13% share · 27 yds/g · 1 TD · aDOT 4.2
- Marvin Mims Jr. WRQuestionable3.8 tgt/g · 11% share · 28 yds/g · 2 TD · aDOT 9.2
- RJ Harvey RB8.7 car/g · 31 yds/g · 3.6 ypc · 7 TD · −0.16 EPA/car
- J.K. Dobbins RB15.3 car/g · 77 yds/g · 5.0 ypc · 4 TD · +0.03 EPA/car
2025 season, per game. Targets ranked by volume, rushers by carries.nflverse weekly player stats. Target share is the player's average share of his team's targets in the games he played. A player who changed teams carries his own games from last season.
2026 schedule
| Date | Opponent | Result | Line | Model | ATS | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 14W1 | at Kansas City Chiefs | — | +2.5 | DEN 52% | — | — |
| Sep 20W2 | vs Jacksonville Jaguars | — | -3 | — | — | — |
| Sep 27W3 | vs Los Angeles Rams | — | +3 | — | — | — |
| Oct 4W4 | at San Francisco 49ers | — | +2.5 | — | — | — |
| Oct 11W5 | at Los Angeles Chargers | — | +2.5 | — | — | — |
| Oct 15W6 | vs Seattle Seahawks | — | +2.5 | — | — | — |
| Oct 25W7 | at Arizona Cardinals | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nov 1W8 | vsKansas City Chiefs | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nov 8W9 | at Carolina Panthers | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nov 22W11 | vs Las Vegas Raiders | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nov 27W12 | at Pittsburgh Steelers | — | -1.5 | — | — | — |
| Dec 6W13 | vs Miami Dolphins | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dec 13W14 | at New York Jets | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dec 20W15 | atLas Vegas Raiders | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dec 25W16 | vs Buffalo Bills | — | +1.5 | — | — | — |
| Jan 3W17 | at New England Patriots | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jan 10W18 | vsLos Angeles Chargers | — | — | — | — | — |
Line is this team's spread. Model, ATS and CLV are shown only for picks locked before kickoff; 0 played.