Miami (1-5) hosts New England (4-3) at Hard Rock Stadium on Nov 1, 2026, 4:25 PM ET.
The model's winner call: locked before the start, graded in public, built on the market's price.
NE end zone ← 100 yards → MIA end zone
Wind is the direction it blows from. Halftime is about 1 hour 36 minutes in and the end about 3 hours 18 minutes in: a forecast, not a result.
A longer bar = a better setup for the offense: half from how high the offense ranks, half from how low the defense across from it ranks (of 32). A full bar is the best offense against the worst defense; the dashed tick is an even matchup. Biggest advantage first.
NE has the clear advantage in passing, third-down conversion and sacks; MIA's defense has it in rushing.
NE's defense has it in sacks.
NE offensevs
MIA defenseNE offense ranks better in 3 of 6 matchups (3 by a clear margin) · MIA defense in 2 (1 by a clear margin) · 1 even
MIA offensevsNE defenseMIA offense ranks better in 1 of 6 matchups · NE defense in 4 (1 by a clear margin) · 1 even
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 32 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
231 a game, league 227 · last 17 games (6 in 2026, 11 in 2025)
MIA pressures on 27% of dropbacks (#24 of 32); he completes 35% under pressure (league 34%).
96.2 a game, league 96.0 · last 17 games (6 in 2026, 11 in 2025)
126 a game, league 141 · last 17 games (6 in 2026, 11 in 2025)
Mixed: few yards allowed, but leaky per play this season
His routes (Screen 17%, Quick out 16%, Hitch / curl 11%): MIA allowed 7.7 yds a target, league 7.6.
Same MIA readings against WRs as above.
His routes (In / dig 15%, Slant 15%, Deep out 15%): MIA allowed 8.2 yds a target, league 8.0.
68.9 a game, league 54.0 · last 17 games (6 in 2026, 11 in 2025)
Both readings soft
His routes (Quick out 20%, Hitch / curl 20%, Deep out 11%): MIA allowed 7.9 yds a target, league 7.7.
198 a game, league 227 · last 17 games (7 in 2026, 10 in 2025)
NE pressures on 35% of dropbacks (#2 of 32); he completes 64% under pressure (league 34%).
88.7 a game, league 96.0 · last 17 games (7 in 2026, 10 in 2025)
Mixed: few yards allowed, but leaky per play this season
121 a game, league 141 · last 17 games (7 in 2026, 10 in 2025)
His routes (Screen 25%, Quick out 18%, Slant 10%): NE allowed 6.7 yds a target, league 7.0.
Same NE readings against WRs as above.
48.5 a game, league 54.0 · last 17 games (7 in 2026, 10 in 2025)
His routes (Quick out 35%, Hitch / curl 17%, Screen 9%): NE allowed 6.8 yds a target, league 7.1.
Players: this season's attempts, carries and targets (last season before a team's first game); anyone ruled out on the injury report is left off. Routes are where his targets came from over 2024–25, each route's yards shrunk toward the league's. Books already price these matchups.
NE is not among the softest third of defenses in any of these categories.
Rank 1 allows the most. Each defense's last 17 games from box scores (early in a season that reaches back into last season; each row shows how many of its games are from each season), against the average defense. Books already price matchups: this is where to look, not a bet.
Where a player's own strength meets something tonight's opponent gives up more than most, measured against the league. Matchups like these were tested as inputs for player props and added nothing the books' lines do not already reflect: research, not a pick.
Lines from regulated US sportsbooks; the fair chance is the books' own, with their margin taken out.
New England Patriots6 listedMiami Dolphins5 listedTimes are when the report changed on our end, last 30 days.
The referee is posted closer to kickoff.
| Book | MIA spread | Total | NE ML | MIA ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM (opens BetMGM in a new tab) | +7(-112) | 44(-108/-110) | -325 | +260 |
| DraftKings (opens DraftKings in a new tab) | +7(-115) | 43.5(-118/-102) | -310 | +250 |
| FanDuel (opens FanDuel in a new tab) | +6.5(-102) | 44.5(-106/-114) | -320 | +260 |
| Hard Rock (opens Hard Rock in a new tab) | +7(-115) | 44(-110/-110) | -350 | +260 |
| Caesars (opens Caesars in a new tab) | +7(-112) | 43.5(-117/-103) | -335 | +265 |
Hover or tap a chart to read any hour; click to pin it.
Each line is the number most books post, a step at each hour a book changed one, since we first priced the game; the band is the lowest and highest number any book had up then (ring = first seen, dot = the latest pull). Spread: higher = the home side laying more. The moneyline is the home side's win chance with the books' margin removed.
Checking your plan for the alternate spreads and totals…
Division rivals — they meet twice every season. NE have won the last 2.
New England PatriotsMiami DolphinsLines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the score. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. Sportsbook links may be affiliate links; we may earn a commission if you sign up through them.
The 6 measures where these two sit furthest apart among the league's 32 ranked teams, over each team's last 17 regular-season games (Oct 2025 – Oct 2026; 6–7 in 2026, 10–11 in 2025). A longer bar = higher in the league (rank 1 = highest, even for points allowed). A rank says where a number sits, not which side it points to.
Where a player's own games in the situations this game has and the books' no-vig chance disagree by more than luck usually explains. Some still are luck. History, not a pick.
Ollie Gordon II has stayed under 9.5 receiving yards in 21 of 23 games over the last two seasons.
⚠ His role may have changed: 68% of the snaps lately against 30% in these games, and the line may already reflect that.
Lines from regulated US sportsbooks; they can lag what a book shows right now.