Kansas City Chiefs
2026: 6-11 (last season) · Elo 1497 · #17 of 32 · 21.3 for, 19.3 against · ATS 6-11
Rating trajectory The model's Elo after each week, this season in blue and last season in grey. 1500 is league average; every 22 (NFL) or 18 (college) points is about one point of spread.
Model on this team
No locked picks graded yet this season.
How they play
- Pass rate
- 66%
- Early-down pass rate
- 62%
- Neutral-script pass rate
- 61%
- Pass rate over expected
- +3.9%
- Seconds per play
- 29.1
- No-huddle
- 2%
- Shotgun
- 81%
- Play-action rate
- 15%
- RPO rate
- 14%
Offense · best and worst (of 32)
- YAC / completion
- #3 · 5.8
- Turnovers / game
- #5 · 0.88
- EPA / dropback
- #13 · +0.08
- Pass success rate
- #13 · 46%
- Explosive rush rate
- #31 · 7.2%
- Yards / rush
- #26 · 3.8
- Third-down conversion
- #22 · 38%
- Completion % over expected
- #21 · −0.9
Defense · best and worst (of 32)
- Explosive rush rate
- #4 · 7.6%
- Yards / rush
- #7 · 3.9
- Red-zone touchdown rate
- #7 · 53%
- EPA / rush
- #9 · −0.09
- Third-down conversion
- #28 · 44%
- Takeaways / game
- #27 · 0.76
- Completion % over expected
- #26 · +2.3
- YAC / completion
- #25 · 5.5
Kansas City Chiefs · key players
- Patrick Mahomes QBQuestionable22.5/35.9 · 256 yds/g · 22-11 TD-INT · +0.13 EPA/db
- Travis Kelce TE6.4 tgt/g · 20% share · 50 yds/g · 5 TD · aDOT 6.8
- Rashee Rice WR9.8 tgt/g · 29% share · 71 yds/g · 5 TD · aDOT 4.3
- Marquise Brown WR4.6 tgt/g · 14% share · 37 yds/g · 5 TD · aDOT 11.3
- Xavier Worthy WR5.2 tgt/g · 16% share · 38 yds/g · 1 TD · aDOT 12.9
- Kareem Hunt RB9.6 car/g · 36 yds/g · 3.7 ypc · 8 TD · +0.06 EPA/car
- Isiah Pacheco RB9.1 car/g · 36 yds/g · 3.9 ypc · 1 TD · −0.12 EPA/car
2025 season, per game. Targets ranked by volume, rushers by carries.nflverse weekly player stats. Target share is the player's average share of his team's targets in the games he played. A player who changed teams carries his own games from last season.
2026 schedule
| Date | Opponent | Result | Line | Model | ATS | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 14W1 | vs Denver Broncos | — | -2.5 | DEN 52% | — | — |
| Sep 20W2 | vs Indianapolis Colts | — | -6.5 | — | — | — |
| Sep 27W3 | at Miami Dolphins | — | -7.5 | — | — | — |
| Oct 4W4 | at Las Vegas Raiders | — | -5.5 | — | — | — |
| Oct 18W6 | vs Los Angeles Chargers | — | -2.5 | — | — | — |
| Oct 25W7 | at Seattle Seahawks | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nov 1W8 | atDenver Broncos | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nov 8W9 | vs New York Jets | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nov 15W10 | at Atlanta Falcons | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nov 22W11 | vs Arizona Cardinals | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nov 26W12 | at Buffalo Bills | — | +2.5 | — | — | — |
| Dec 3W13 | at Los Angeles Rams | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dec 13W14 | at Cincinnati Bengals | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dec 21W15 | vs New England Patriots | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dec 27W16 | vs San Francisco 49ers | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jan 3W17 | atLos Angeles Chargers | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jan 10W18 | vsLas Vegas Raiders | — | — | — | — | — |
Line is this team's spread. Model, ATS and CLV are shown only for picks locked before kickoff; 0 played.