Buffalo Bills
2026: 13-6 (last season) · Elo 1609 · #2 of 32 · 28.3 for, 22.2 against · ATS 9-10
Rating trajectory The model's Elo after each week, this season in blue and last season in grey. 1500 is league average; every 22 (NFL) or 18 (college) points is about one point of spread.
Model on this team
No locked picks graded yet this season.
How they play
- Pass rate
- 56%
- Early-down pass rate
- 52%
- Neutral-script pass rate
- 53%
- Pass rate over expected
- −3.0%
- Seconds per play
- 31.9
- No-huddle
- 6%
- Shotgun
- 51%
- Play-action rate
- 26%
- RPO rate
- 7%
Offense · best and worst (of 32)
- EPA / rush
- #1 · +0.07
- Rush success rate
- #2 · 48%
- Red-zone touchdown rate
- #2 · 67%
- Explosive rush rate
- #3 · 12.0%
- Sack rate
- #19 · 6.6%
- Turnovers / game
- #18 · 1.21
- Interception rate
- #17 · 2.1%
- Pass success rate
- #6 · 49%
Defense · best and worst (of 32)
- Completion % over expected
- #6 · −2.8
- Pass success rate
- #7 · 42%
- Yards / dropback
- #7 · 5.7
- Interceptions forced
- #7 · 3.0%
- Yards / rush
- #30 · 4.9
- Explosive rush rate
- #30 · 13.7%
- EPA / rush
- #29 · +0.04
- Third-down conversion
- #24 · 43%
Buffalo Bills · key players
- Josh Allen QB20.7/29.7 · 235 yds/g · 29-12 TD-INT · +0.15 EPA/db
- Khalil Shakir WRQuestionable6.4 tgt/g · 22% share · 49 yds/g · 4 TD · aDOT 3.4
- Keon Coleman WRQuestionable4.5 tgt/g · 15% share · 32 yds/g · 5 TD · aDOT 11.6
- Dalton Kincaid TE4.3 tgt/g · 15% share · 49 yds/g · 7 TD · aDOT 9.3
- Dawson Knox TE3.2 tgt/g · 11% share · 27 yds/g · 4 TD · aDOT 6.8
- James Cook RB18.3 car/g · 94 yds/g · 5.1 ypc · 12 TD · −0.00 EPA/car
- Ray Davis RB4.1 car/g · 20 yds/g · 4.7 ypc · 0 TD · +0.02 EPA/car
2025 season, per game. Targets ranked by volume, rushers by carries.nflverse weekly player stats. Target share is the player's average share of his team's targets in the games he played. A player who changed teams carries his own games from last season.
2026 schedule
| Date | Opponent | Result | Line | Model | ATS | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13W1 | at Houston Texans | — | -0.5 | HOU 53% | — | — |
| Sep 17W2 | vs Detroit Lions | — | -3 | — | — | — |
| Sep 27W3 | vs Los Angeles Chargers | — | -3 | — | — | — |
| Oct 4W4 | vs New England Patriots | — | -3 | — | — | — |
| Oct 12W5 | at Los Angeles Rams | — | +3 | — | — | — |
| Oct 18W6 | at Las Vegas Raiders | — | -6.5 | — | — | — |
| Nov 1W8 | vs Baltimore Ravens | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nov 9W9 | at Minnesota Vikings | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nov 15W10 | at New York Jets | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nov 22W11 | vs Miami Dolphins | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nov 26W12 | vs Kansas City Chiefs | — | -2.5 | — | — | — |
| Dec 6W13 | atNew England Patriots | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dec 13W14 | at Green Bay Packers | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dec 19W15 | vs Chicago Bears | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dec 25W16 | at Denver Broncos | — | -1.5 | — | — | — |
| Jan 3W17 | atMiami Dolphins | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jan 10W18 | vsNew York Jets | — | — | — | — | — |
Line is this team's spread. Model, ATS and CLV are shown only for picks locked before kickoff; 0 played.