New England Patriots
2026: 17-4 (last season) · Elo 1586 · #6 of 32 · 26.5 for, 17.9 against · ATS 14-7
Rating trajectory The model's Elo after each week, this season in blue and last season in grey. 1500 is league average; every 22 (NFL) or 18 (college) points is about one point of spread.
Model on this team
No locked picks graded yet this season.
How they play
- Pass rate
- 61%
- Early-down pass rate
- 55%
- Neutral-script pass rate
- 57%
- Pass rate over expected
- +1.9%
- Seconds per play
- 30.8
- No-huddle
- 3%
- Shotgun
- 56%
- Play-action rate
- 22%
- RPO rate
- 2%
Offense · best and worst (of 32)
- Completion % over expected
- #1 · +7.9
- Pass success rate
- #2 · 52%
- Explosive pass rate
- #2 · 11.3%
- EPA / dropback
- #3 · +0.21
- Rush success rate
- #28 · 37%
- Sack rate
- #28 · 9.0%
- EPA / rush
- #27 · −0.10
- Red-zone touchdown rate
- #21 · 56%
Defense · best and worst (of 32)
- Explosive pass rate
- #3 · 6.3%
- YAC / completion
- #4 · 4.6
- EPA / dropback
- #5 · −0.09
- Yards / dropback
- #5 · 5.5
- Rush success rate
- #17 · 41%
- Interceptions forced
- #17 · 2.2%
- Sack rate generated
- #16 · 6.3%
- Red-zone touchdown rate
- #15 · 58%
New England Patriots · key players
- Drake Maye QB20.2/29.1 · 249 yds/g · 37-12 TD-INT · +0.18 EPA/db
- Stefon Diggs WR5.8 tgt/g · 21% share · 53 yds/g · 5 TD · aDOT 8.2
- Hunter Henry TE4.9 tgt/g · 17% share · 42 yds/g · 8 TD · aDOT 8.3
- Mack Hollins WR4.7 tgt/g · 16% share · 42 yds/g · 3 TD · aDOT 14.2
- Kayshon Boutte WR3.7 tgt/g · 14% share · 40 yds/g · 7 TD · aDOT 16.9
- TreVeyon Henderson RBQuestionable10.0 car/g · 47 yds/g · 4.7 ypc · 9 TD · −0.01 EPA/car
- Rhamondre Stevenson RB10.4 car/g · 46 yds/g · 4.4 ypc · 7 TD · −0.14 EPA/car
2025 season, per game. Targets ranked by volume, rushers by carries.nflverse weekly player stats. Target share is the player's average share of his team's targets in the games he played. A player who changed teams carries his own games from last season.
2026 schedule
| Date | Opponent | Result | Line | Model | ATS | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 9W1 | at Seattle Seahawks | — | +3.5 | SEA 71% | — | — |
| Sep 20W2 | vs Pittsburgh Steelers | — | -4.5 | — | — | — |
| Sep 27W3 | at Jacksonville Jaguars | — | +1.5 | — | — | — |
| Oct 4W4 | at Buffalo Bills | — | +3 | — | — | — |
| Oct 11W5 | vs Las Vegas Raiders | — | -8.5 | — | — | — |
| Oct 18W6 | vs New York Jets | — | -9.5 | — | — | — |
| Oct 22W7 | at Chicago Bears | — | +1.5 | — | — | — |
| Nov 1W8 | at Miami Dolphins | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nov 8W9 | vs Green Bay Packers | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nov 15W10 | vs Detroit Lions | — | -1.5 | — | — | — |
| Nov 29W12 | at Los Angeles Chargers | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dec 6W13 | vsBuffalo Bills | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dec 10W14 | vs Minnesota Vikings | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dec 21W15 | at Kansas City Chiefs | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dec 27W16 | atNew York Jets | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jan 3W17 | vs Denver Broncos | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jan 10W18 | vsMiami Dolphins | — | — | — | — | — |
Line is this team's spread. Model, ATS and CLV are shown only for picks locked before kickoff; 0 played.