Denver (5-2) hosts Kansas City (5-1) at Empower Field at Mile High on Nov 1, 2026, 4:25 PM ET.
The model's winner call: locked before the start, graded in public, built on the market's price.
KC end zone ← 100 yards → DEN end zone
Wind is the direction it blows from. Halftime is about 1 hour 36 minutes in and the end about 3 hours 18 minutes in: a forecast, not a result.
A longer bar = a better setup for the offense: half from how high the offense ranks, half from how low the defense across from it ranks (of 32). A full bar is the best offense against the worst defense; the dashed tick is an even matchup. Biggest advantage first.
KC has the clear advantage in rushing and third-down conversion; DEN's defense has it in red-zone touchdown rate.
DEN has the clear advantage in sacks; KC's defense has it in third-down conversion, red-zone touchdown rate and passing.
KC offensevs
DEN defenseKC offense ranks better in 4 of 6 matchups (2 by a clear margin) · DEN defense in 2 (1 by a clear margin)
DEN offensevsKC defenseDEN offense ranks better in 1 of 6 matchups (1 by a clear margin) · KC defense in 5 (3 by a clear margin)
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 32 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
218 a game, league 227 · last 17 games (7 in 2026, 10 in 2025)
DEN pressures on 31% of dropbacks (#9 of 32); he completes 33% under pressure (league 34%).
83.0 a game, league 96.0 · last 17 games (7 in 2026, 10 in 2025)
Mixed: few yards allowed, but leaky per play this season
129 a game, league 141 · last 17 games (7 in 2026, 10 in 2025)
Both readings tough
His routes (Quick out 19%, Screen 16%, Hitch / curl 12%): DEN allowed 7.1 yds a target, league 7.5.
Same DEN readings against WRs as above.
His routes (Screen 23%, Slant 20%, Hitch / curl 14%): DEN allowed 6.6 yds a target, league 6.9.
65.7 a game, league 54.0 · last 17 games (7 in 2026, 10 in 2025)
Mixed: lots of yards allowed, but stingy per play this season
His routes (Hitch / curl 31%, Quick out 16%, Shallow cross 10%): DEN allowed 7.0 yds a target, league 7.3.
215 a game, league 227 · last 17 games (6 in 2026, 11 in 2025)
Both readings tough
KC pressures on 32% of dropbacks (#7 of 32); he completes 38% under pressure (league 34%).
78.3 a game, league 96.0 · last 17 games (6 in 2026, 11 in 2025)
Both readings tough
125 a game, league 141 · last 17 games (6 in 2026, 11 in 2025)
Both readings tough
His routes (In / dig 16%, Deep out 14%, Post 12%): KC allowed 8.2 yds a target, league 8.3.
Same KC readings against WRs as above.
His routes (Hitch / curl 23%, In / dig 18%, Go 16%): KC allowed 8.5 yds a target, league 8.4.
59.7 a game, league 54.0 · last 17 games (6 in 2026, 11 in 2025)
Mixed: lots of yards allowed, but stingy per play this season
His routes (Quick out 32%, Hitch / curl 20%, Shallow cross 11%): KC allowed 6.9 yds a target, league 6.9.
Players: this season's attempts, carries and targets (last season before a team's first game); anyone ruled out on the injury report is left off. Routes are where his targets came from over 2024–25, each route's yards shrunk toward the league's. Books already price these matchups.
Rank 1 allows the most. Each defense's last 17 games from box scores (early in a season that reaches back into last season; each row shows how many of its games are from each season), against the average defense. Books already price matchups: this is where to look, not a bet.
Where a player's own strength meets something tonight's opponent gives up more than most, measured against the league. Matchups like these were tested as inputs for player props and added nothing the books' lines do not already reflect: research, not a pick.
Lines from regulated US sportsbooks; the fair chance is the books' own, with their margin taken out.
Kansas City Chiefs4 listedDenver Broncos6 listedTimes are when the report changed on our end, last 30 days.
The referee is posted closer to kickoff.
| Book | DEN spread | Total | KC ML | DEN ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM (opens BetMGM in a new tab) | — | 41(-108/-120) | -120 | — |
| DraftKings (opens DraftKings in a new tab) | +1.5(-115) | 40.5(-112/-108) | -118 | -102 |
| FanDuel (opens FanDuel in a new tab) | +1.5(-112) | 40.5(-115/-105) | -118 | +100 |
| Hard Rock (opens Hard Rock in a new tab) | +1.5(-110) | 40.5(-110/-110) | -120 | +100 |
| Caesars (opens Caesars in a new tab) | — | 40.5(-115/-105) | -122 | +103 |
Hover or tap a chart to read any hour; click to pin it.
Each line is the number most books post, a step at each hour a book changed one, since we first priced the game; the band is the lowest and highest number any book had up then (ring = first seen, dot = the latest pull). Spread: higher = the home side laying more. The moneyline is the home side's win chance with the books' margin removed.
Checking your plan for the alternate spreads and totals…
Division rivals — they meet twice every season.
Kansas City ChiefsDenver BroncosLines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the score. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. Sportsbook links may be affiliate links; we may earn a commission if you sign up through them.
The 5 measures where these two sit furthest apart among the league's 32 ranked teams, over each team's last 17 regular-season games (Oct 2025 – Oct 2026; 6–7 in 2026, 10–11 in 2025). A longer bar = higher in the league (rank 1 = highest, even for points allowed). A rank says where a number sits, not which side it points to.
Where a player's own games in the situations this game has and the books' no-vig chance disagree by more than luck usually explains. Some still are luck. History, not a pick.
J.K. Dobbins has gone over 25.5 rushing yards in 16 of 17 games over the last two seasons.
Also cleared the bar (home): 8 of 8 on the over side.
Lines from regulated US sportsbooks; they can lag what a book shows right now.