Probetrics — Sports Analytics

Dallas Cowboys

2026: 7-9-1 (last season) · Elo 1447 · #24 of 32 · 27.7 for, 30.1 against · ATS 7-10

Next: at NYG · Sep 13

Rating trajectory The model's Elo after each week, this season in blue and last season in grey. 1500 is league average; every 22 (NFL) or 18 (college) points is about one point of spread.

14471500 = average

Model on this team

No locked picks graded yet this season.

How they play

Pass rate
62%
Early-down pass rate
55%
Neutral-script pass rate
54%
Pass rate over expected
−1.0%
Seconds per play
28.3
No-huddle
9%
Shotgun
63%
Play-action rate
27%
RPO rate
5%

Offense · best and worst (of 32)

EPA / dropback
#6 · +0.16
Sack rate
#6 · 4.6%
Yards / rush
#6 · 4.6
Yards / dropback
#7 · 6.9
Turnovers / game
#20 · 1.24
Explosive rush rate
#19 · 9.5%
YAC / completion
#19 · 5.0
Interception rate
#13 · 1.9%

Defense · best and worst (of 32)

Sack rate generated
#26 · 5.5%
Explosive pass rate
#27 · 9.5%
Yards / rush
#27 · 4.7
YAC / completion
#28 · 5.7
Third-down conversion
#32 · 48%
Yards / dropback
#32 · 7.3
Explosive rush rate
#31 · 14.1%
Completion % over expected
#31 · +6.9

Dallas Cowboys · key players

  • Dak Prescott QB23.8/35.3 · 268 yds/g · 30-10 TD-INT · +0.18 EPA/db
  • George Pickens WR8.1 tgt/g · 23% share · 84 yds/g · 9 TD · aDOT 11.3
  • CeeDee Lamb WR9.0 tgt/g · 25% share · 83 yds/g · 3 TD · aDOT 12.0
  • Jake Ferguson TE6.0 tgt/g · 16% share · 35 yds/g · 8 TD · aDOT 4.7
  • Ryan Flournoy WR4.3 tgt/g · 13% share · 37 yds/g · 4 TD · aDOT 8.3
  • Javonte Williams RB15.8 car/g · 75 yds/g · 4.8 ypc · 11 TD · +0.05 EPA/car
  • Malik Davis RB5.8 car/g · 28 yds/g · 4.8 ypc · 2 TD · +0.02 EPA/car

2025 season, per game. Targets ranked by volume, rushers by carries.nflverse weekly player stats. Target share is the player's average share of his team's targets in the games he played. A player who changed teams carries his own games from last season.

2026 schedule
DateOpponentResultLineModelATSCLV
Sep 13W1atNew York Giants-3NYG 54%
Sep 20W2vsWashington Commanders-4.5
Sep 27W3vsBaltimore Ravens+2.5
Oct 4W4atHouston Texans+2.5
Oct 8W5vsTampa Bay Buccaneers-3.5
Oct 18W6atGreen Bay Packers+3
Oct 26W7atPhiladelphia Eagles
Nov 1W8vsArizona Cardinals
Nov 8W9atIndianapolis Colts
Nov 15W10vsSan Francisco 49ers
Nov 22W11vsTennessee Titans
Nov 26W12vsPhiladelphia Eagles-1.5
Dec 7W13atSeattle Seahawks
Dec 20W15atLos Angeles Rams
Dec 27W16vsJacksonville Jaguars
Jan 3W17vsNew York Giants
Jan 10W18atWashington Commanders

Line is this team's spread. Model, ATS and CLV are shown only for picks locked before kickoff; 0 played.