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Cincinnati (4-2) hosts Tennessee (1-6) at Paycor Stadium on Nov 1, 2026, 1:00 PM ET.
This week's free read: the model's winner call, locked before the start.
TEN end zone ← 100 yards → CIN end zone
Wind is the direction it blows from. Halftime is about 1 hour 36 minutes in and the end about 3 hours 18 minutes in: a forecast, not a result.
A longer bar = a better setup for the offense: half from how high the offense ranks, half from how low the defense across from it ranks (of 32). A full bar is the best offense against the worst defense; the dashed tick is an even matchup. Biggest advantage first.
CIN's defense has it in sacks, rushing, turnovers, passing and red-zone touchdown rate.
CIN has the clear advantage in passing, third-down conversion, turnovers and rushing.
TEN offensevs
CIN defenseTEN offense ranks better in 0 of 6 matchups · CIN defense in 5 (5 by a clear margin) · 1 even
CIN offensevsTEN defenseCIN offense ranks better in 6 of 6 matchups (4 by a clear margin) · TEN defense in 0
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 32 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
240 a game, league 227 · last 17 games (6 in 2026, 11 in 2025)
CIN pressures on 30% of dropbacks (#13 of 32); he completes 32% under pressure (league 34%).
106 a game, league 96.0 · last 17 games (6 in 2026, 11 in 2025)
110 a game, league 141 · last 17 games (6 in 2026, 11 in 2025)
Both readings tough
Same CIN readings against WRs as above.
His routes (Hitch / curl 25%, Quick out 19%, Screen 12%): CIN allowed 7.4 yds a target, league 7.2.
91.6 a game, league 54.0 · last 17 games (6 in 2026, 11 in 2025)
Mixed: lots of yards allowed, but stingy per play this season
His routes (Hitch / curl 25%, Quick out 24%, Screen 11%): CIN allowed 7.4 yds a target, league 7.0.
258 a game, league 227 · last 17 games (7 in 2026, 10 in 2025)
Both readings soft
TEN pressures on 31% of dropbacks (#10 of 32); he completes 41% under pressure (league 34%).
87.8 a game, league 96.0 · last 17 games (7 in 2026, 10 in 2025)
Mixed: few yards allowed, but leaky per play this season
173 a game, league 141 · last 17 games (7 in 2026, 10 in 2025)
Both readings soft
His routes (Hitch / curl 23%, Go 19%, Deep out 12%): TEN allowed 8.6 yds a target, league 8.3.
Same TEN readings against WRs as above.
His routes (Hitch / curl 16%, Deep out 15%, Quick out 11%): TEN allowed 7.7 yds a target, league 7.5.
54.1 a game, league 54.0 · last 17 games (7 in 2026, 10 in 2025)
His routes (Hitch / curl 26%, Quick out 21%, Deep out 14%): TEN allowed 8.0 yds a target, league 7.8.
Players: this season's attempts, carries and targets (last season before a team's first game); anyone ruled out on the injury report is left off. Routes are where his targets came from over 2024–25, each route's yards shrunk toward the league's. Books already price these matchups.
Rank 1 allows the most. Each defense's last 17 games from box scores (early in a season that reaches back into last season; each row shows how many of its games are from each season), against the average defense. Books already price matchups: this is where to look, not a bet.
Where a player's own strength meets something tonight's opponent gives up more than most, measured against the league. Matchups like these were tested as inputs for player props and added nothing the books' lines do not already reflect: research, not a pick.
Lines from regulated US sportsbooks; the fair chance is the books' own, with their margin taken out.
Tennessee Titans6 listedCincinnati Bengals4 listedTimes are when the report changed on our end, last 30 days.
The referee is posted closer to kickoff.
| Book | CIN spread | Total | TEN ML | CIN ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM (opens BetMGM in a new tab) | -10.5(-105) | 46.5(-112/-118) | +425 | -550 |
| DraftKings (opens DraftKings in a new tab) | -10.5(-105) | 46.5(-110/-110) | +380 | -500 |
| FanDuel (opens FanDuel in a new tab) | -10.5(-105) | 46.5(-110/-110) | +440 | -590 |
| Hard Rock (opens Hard Rock in a new tab) | -10.5(-110) | 47(-110/-110) | +425 | -600 |
| theScore Bet (opens theScore Bet in a new tab) | -10.5(-105) | 46.5(-110/-110) | +425 | -650 |
| Caesars (opens Caesars in a new tab) | -10.5(-105) | 46.5(-110/-110) | +400 | -560 |
Hover or tap a chart to read any hour; click to pin it.
Each line is the number most books post, a step at each hour a book changed one, since we first priced the game; the band is the lowest and highest number any book had up then (ring = first seen, dot = the latest pull). Spread: higher = the home side laying more. The moneyline is the home side's win chance with the books' margin removed.
Checking your plan for the alternate spreads and totals…
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (7 of the 15 seasons in our history).
Tennessee TitansCincinnati BengalsLines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the score. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. Sportsbook links may be affiliate links; we may earn a commission if you sign up through them.
The 6 measures where these two sit furthest apart among the league's 32 ranked teams, over each team's last 17 regular-season games (Oct 2025 – Oct 2026; 6–7 in 2026, 10–11 in 2025). A longer bar = higher in the league (rank 1 = highest, even for points allowed). A rank says where a number sits, not which side it points to.