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Pittsburgh (5-2) hosts Cleveland (5-2) at Acrisure Stadium on Nov 1, 2026, 1:00 PM ET.
The model's winner call: locked before the start, graded in public, built on the market's price.
CLE end zone ← 100 yards → PIT end zone
Wind is the direction it blows from. Halftime is about 1 hour 36 minutes in and the end about 3 hours 18 minutes in: a forecast, not a result.
A longer bar = a better setup for the offense: half from how high the offense ranks, half from how low the defense across from it ranks (of 32). A full bar is the best offense against the worst defense; the dashed tick is an even matchup. Biggest advantage first.
PIT's defense has it in turnovers, passing, red-zone touchdown rate, rushing, sacks and third-down conversion.
PIT has the clear advantage in rushing; CLE's defense has it in third-down conversion, passing, sacks and red-zone touchdown rate.
CLE offensevs
PIT defenseCLE offense ranks better in 0 of 6 matchups · PIT defense in 6 (6 by a clear margin)
PIT offensevsCLE defensePIT offense ranks better in 1 of 6 matchups (1 by a clear margin) · CLE defense in 5 (4 by a clear margin)
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 32 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
229 a game, league 227 · last 17 games (7 in 2026, 10 in 2025)
PIT pressures on 29% of dropbacks (#20 of 32).
94.1 a game, league 96.0 · last 17 games (7 in 2026, 10 in 2025)
145 a game, league 141 · last 17 games (7 in 2026, 10 in 2025)
Same PIT readings against WRs as above.
50.5 a game, league 54.0 · last 17 games (7 in 2026, 10 in 2025)
His routes (Hitch / curl 27%, Quick out 17%, In / dig 15%): PIT allowed 7.5 yds a target, league 7.5.
201 a game, league 227 · last 17 games (7 in 2026, 10 in 2025)
Both readings tough
CLE pressures on 34% of dropbacks (#3 of 32); he completes 23% under pressure (league 34%).
112 a game, league 96.0 · last 17 games (7 in 2026, 10 in 2025)
120 a game, league 141 · last 17 games (7 in 2026, 10 in 2025)
Both readings tough
His routes (Go 21%, Hitch / curl 13%, Slant 12%): CLE allowed 8.4 yds a target, league 8.3.
Same CLE readings against WRs as above.
53.2 a game, league 54.0 · last 17 games (7 in 2026, 10 in 2025)
His routes (Quick out 30%, Hitch / curl 16%, Go 9%): CLE allowed 7.4 yds a target, league 7.3.
Players: this season's attempts, carries and targets (last season before a team's first game); anyone ruled out on the injury report is left off. Routes are where his targets came from over 2024–25, each route's yards shrunk toward the league's. Books already price these matchups.
PIT is not among the softest third of defenses in any of these categories.
Rank 1 allows the most. Each defense's last 17 games from box scores (early in a season that reaches back into last season; each row shows how many of its games are from each season), against the average defense. Books already price matchups: this is where to look, not a bet.
Where a player's own strength meets something tonight's opponent gives up more than most, measured against the league. Matchups like these were tested as inputs for player props and added nothing the books' lines do not already reflect: research, not a pick.
Lines from regulated US sportsbooks; the fair chance is the books' own, with their margin taken out.
Cleveland Browns5 listedPittsburgh Steelers3 listedTimes are when the report changed on our end, last 30 days.
The referee is posted closer to kickoff.
| Book | PIT spread | Total | CLE ML | PIT ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM (opens BetMGM in a new tab) | -3.5(-105) | 39.5(-108/-110) | +160 | -200 |
| DraftKings (opens DraftKings in a new tab) | -3.5(-110) | 39.5(-108/-112) | +160 | -192 |
| FanDuel (opens FanDuel in a new tab) | -3(-122) | 39.5(-105/-115) | +158 | -188 |
| Hard Rock (opens Hard Rock in a new tab) | -3.5(-105) | 39(-110/-110) | +160 | -190 |
| theScore Bet (opens theScore Bet in a new tab) | -3.5(-105) | 39.5(-105/-115) | +155 | -185 |
| Caesars (opens Caesars in a new tab) | -3.5(-106) | 39.5(-107/-113) | +159 | -190 |
Hover or tap a chart to read any hour; click to pin it.
Each line is the number most books post, a step at each hour a book changed one, since we first priced the game; the band is the lowest and highest number any book had up then (ring = first seen, dot = the latest pull). Spread: higher = the home side laying more. The moneyline is the home side's win chance with the books' margin removed.
Checking your plan for the alternate spreads and totals…
Division rivals — they meet twice every season. CLE have won the last 2.
Cleveland BrownsPittsburgh SteelersLines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the score. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. Sportsbook links may be affiliate links; we may earn a commission if you sign up through them.
The 6 measures where these two sit furthest apart among the league's 32 ranked teams, over each team's last 17 regular-season games (Oct 2025 – Oct 2026; 7 in 2026, 10 in 2025). A longer bar = higher in the league (rank 1 = highest, even for points allowed). A rank says where a number sits, not which side it points to.