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Seattle (4-3) hosts Chicago (5-2) at Lumen Field on Nov 2, 2026, 8:15 PM ET.
The model's winner call: locked before the start, graded in public, built on the market's price.
CHI end zone ← 100 yards → SEA end zone
Wind is the direction it blows from. Halftime is about 1 hour 36 minutes in and the end about 3 hours 18 minutes in: a forecast, not a result.
A longer bar = a better setup for the offense: half from how high the offense ranks, half from how low the defense across from it ranks (of 32). A full bar is the best offense against the worst defense; the dashed tick is an even matchup. Biggest advantage first.
CHI has the clear advantage in red-zone touchdown rate; SEA's defense has it in passing, sacks, rushing and turnovers.
CHI's defense has it in turnovers, rushing, sacks and third-down conversion.
CHI offensevs
SEA defenseCHI offense ranks better in 1 of 6 matchups (1 by a clear margin) · SEA defense in 5 (4 by a clear margin)
SEA offensevsCHI defenseSEA offense ranks better in 0 of 6 matchups · CHI defense in 6 (4 by a clear margin)
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 32 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
189 a game, league 227 · last 17 games (7 in 2026, 10 in 2025)
Both readings tough
SEA pressures on 27% of dropbacks (#23 of 32); he completes 34% under pressure (league 34%).
72.6 a game, league 96.0 · last 17 games (7 in 2026, 10 in 2025)
Both readings tough
105 a game, league 141 · last 17 games (7 in 2026, 10 in 2025)
Both readings tough
His routes (Hitch / curl 22%, Screen 22%, Quick out 15%): SEA allowed 7.1 yds a target, league 7.3.
Same SEA readings against WRs as above.
His routes (In / dig 14%, Deep out 14%, Hitch / curl 13%): SEA allowed 7.7 yds a target, league 8.3.
47.2 a game, league 54.0 · last 17 games (7 in 2026, 10 in 2025)
Both readings tough
His routes (Quick out 22%, Hitch / curl 18%, Deep out 13%): SEA allowed 7.4 yds a target, league 7.9.
239 a game, league 227 · last 17 games (7 in 2026, 10 in 2025)
CHI pressures on 24% of dropbacks (#29 of 32); he completes 41% under pressure (league 34%).
91.3 a game, league 96.0 · last 17 games (7 in 2026, 10 in 2025)
161 a game, league 141 · last 17 games (7 in 2026, 10 in 2025)
His routes (Hitch / curl 18%, In / dig 15%, Quick out 11%): CHI allowed 8.4 yds a target, league 7.9.
Same CHI readings against WRs as above.
His routes (Hitch / curl 19%, Go 17%, Quick out 12%): CHI allowed 8.5 yds a target, league 8.1.
49.6 a game, league 54.0 · last 17 games (7 in 2026, 10 in 2025)
His routes (Quick out 36%, Hitch / curl 26%, Shallow cross 12%): CHI allowed 6.7 yds a target, league 6.7.
Players: this season's attempts, carries and targets (last season before a team's first game); anyone ruled out on the injury report is left off. Routes are where his targets came from over 2024–25, each route's yards shrunk toward the league's. Books already price these matchups.
Rank 1 allows the most. Each defense's last 17 games from box scores (early in a season that reaches back into last season; each row shows how many of its games are from each season), against the average defense. Books already price matchups: this is where to look, not a bet.
Where a player's own strength meets something tonight's opponent gives up more than most, measured against the league. Matchups like these were tested as inputs for player props and added nothing the books' lines do not already reflect: research, not a pick.
Lines from regulated US sportsbooks; the fair chance is the books' own, with their margin taken out.
Chicago Bears6 listedSeattle Seahawks9 listedTimes are when the report changed on our end, last 30 days.
The referee is posted closer to kickoff.
| Book | SEA spread | Total | CHI ML | SEA ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM (opens BetMGM in a new tab) | -3(-112) | 46.5(-110/-108) | +145 | -175 |
| DraftKings (opens DraftKings in a new tab) | -3(-115) | 46.5(-110/-110) | +140 | -166 |
| FanDuel (opens FanDuel in a new tab) | -3(-120) | 46.5(-114/-106) | +148 | -176 |
| Hard Rock (opens Hard Rock in a new tab) | -3(-115) | 46.5(-110/-110) | +150 | -175 |
| Caesars (opens Caesars in a new tab) | -3(-117) | 46.5(-109/-112) | +144 | -170 |
Hover or tap a chart to read any hour; click to pin it.
Each line is the number most books post, a step at each hour a book changed one, since we first priced the game; the band is the lowest and highest number any book had up then (ring = first seen, dot = the latest pull). Spread: higher = the home side laying more. The moneyline is the home side's win chance with the books' margin removed.
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (5 of the 15 seasons in our history).
Chicago BearsSeattle SeahawksLines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the score. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. Sportsbook links may be affiliate links; we may earn a commission if you sign up through them.
The 6 measures where these two sit furthest apart among the league's 32 ranked teams, over each team's last 17 regular-season games (Nov 2025 – Oct 2026; 7 in 2026, 10 in 2025). A longer bar = higher in the league (rank 1 = highest, even for points allowed). A rank says where a number sits, not which side it points to.