DET vs MIN · Sun 1:00 PM ET
Jahmyr Gibbs has stayed under 21.5 carries in 19 of 23 games over the last two seasons.
Last 10 · oldest to newest
- History
- ▼ 83%
- 19 of 23
- 90%: 66–92%
- Books
- 50%
- fair chance
- Under 21.5, no-vig
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Detroit (4-2) hosts Minnesota (6-0) at Ford Field on Nov 1, 2026, 1:00 PM ET.
The model's winner call: locked before the start, graded in public, built on the market's price.
A longer bar = a better setup for the offense: half from how high the offense ranks, half from how low the defense across from it ranks (of 32). A full bar is the best offense against the worst defense; the dashed tick is an even matchup. Biggest advantage first.
MIN has the clear advantage in turnovers; DET's defense has it in rushing and sacks.
MIN's defense has it in red-zone touchdown rate, sacks, rushing and third-down conversion.
MIN offensevs
DET defenseMIN offense ranks better in 4 of 6 matchups (1 by a clear margin) · DET defense in 2 (2 by a clear margin)
DET offensevsMIN defenseDET offense ranks better in 0 of 6 matchups · MIN defense in 5 (4 by a clear margin) · 1 even
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 32 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
263 a game, league 227 · last 17 games (6 in 2026, 11 in 2025)
Both readings soft
DET pressures on 29% of dropbacks (#17 of 32); he completes 31% under pressure (league 34%).
92.6 a game, league 96.0 · last 17 games (6 in 2026, 11 in 2025)
167 a game, league 141 · last 17 games (6 in 2026, 11 in 2025)
Both readings soft
His routes (Deep out 16%, In / dig 15%, Hitch / curl 15%): DET allowed 8.0 yds a target, league 8.1.
Same DET readings against WRs as above.
His routes (Deep out 23%, Hitch / curl 15%, Go 13%): DET allowed 8.2 yds a target, league 8.2.
71.6 a game, league 54.0 · last 17 games (6 in 2026, 11 in 2025)
Both readings soft
His routes (Hitch / curl 29%, Quick out 21%, Post 9%): DET allowed 7.5 yds a target, league 7.6.
171 a game, league 227 · last 17 games (6 in 2026, 11 in 2025)
Both readings tough
MIN pressures on 33% of dropbacks (#6 of 32); he completes 33% under pressure (league 34%).
98.6 a game, league 96.0 · last 17 games (6 in 2026, 11 in 2025)
113 a game, league 141 · last 17 games (6 in 2026, 11 in 2025)
Both readings tough
His routes (In / dig 20%, Hitch / curl 18%, Quick out 18%): MIN allowed 7.8 yds a target, league 7.6.
Same MIN readings against WRs as above.
His routes (Hitch / curl 18%, In / dig 17%, Post 11%): MIN allowed 8.2 yds a target, league 8.1.
40.6 a game, league 54.0 · last 17 games (6 in 2026, 11 in 2025)
Both readings tough
His routes (Hitch / curl 28%, Quick out 22%, In / dig 16%): MIN allowed 7.7 yds a target, league 7.5.
Players: this season's attempts, carries and targets (last season before a team's first game); anyone ruled out on the injury report is left off. Routes are where his targets came from over 2024–25, each route's yards shrunk toward the league's. Books already price these matchups.
Rank 1 allows the most. Each defense's last 17 games from box scores (early in a season that reaches back into last season; each row shows how many of its games are from each season), against the average defense. Books already price matchups: this is where to look, not a bet.
Where a player's own strength meets something tonight's opponent gives up more than most, measured against the league. Matchups like these were tested as inputs for player props and added nothing the books' lines do not already reflect: research, not a pick.
Lines from regulated US sportsbooks; the fair chance is the books' own, with their margin taken out.
Minnesota Vikings2 listedDetroit Lions6 listedTimes are when the report changed on our end, last 30 days.
The referee is posted closer to kickoff.
| Book | DET spread | Total | MIN ML | DET ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM (opens BetMGM in a new tab) | -3(-118) | 46(-108/-110) | +145 | -175 |
| DraftKings (opens DraftKings in a new tab) | -3(-120) | 46.5(+100/-120) | +142 | -170 |
| FanDuel (opens FanDuel in a new tab) | -3.5(-102) | 46.5(-104/-118) | +142 | -168 |
| Hard Rock (opens Hard Rock in a new tab) | -3.5(-105) | 46(-110/-110) | +150 | -175 |
| theScore Bet (opens theScore Bet in a new tab) | -3.5(+100) | 46.5(+100/-120) | +145 | -170 |
| Caesars (opens Caesars in a new tab) | -3.5(+100) | 46(-109/-112) | +151 | -179 |
Hover or tap a chart to read any hour; click to pin it.
Each line is the number most books post, a step at each hour a book changed one, since we first priced the game; the band is the lowest and highest number any book had up then (ring = first seen, dot = the latest pull). Spread: higher = the home side laying more. The moneyline is the home side's win chance with the books' margin removed.
Checking your plan for the alternate spreads and totals…
Division rivals — they meet twice every season. MIN have won the last 2.
Minnesota VikingsDetroit LionsLines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the score. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. Sportsbook links may be affiliate links; we may earn a commission if you sign up through them.
The 6 measures where these two sit furthest apart among the league's 32 ranked teams, over each team's last 17 regular-season games (Oct 2025 – Oct 2026; 6 in 2026, 11 in 2025). A longer bar = higher in the league (rank 1 = highest, even for points allowed). A rank says where a number sits, not which side it points to.
Where a player's own games in the situations this game has and the books' no-vig chance disagree by more than luck usually explains. Some still are luck. History, not a pick.
Jahmyr Gibbs has stayed under 21.5 carries in 19 of 23 games over the last two seasons.
Lines from regulated US sportsbooks; they can lag what a book shows right now.