Probetrics — Sports Analytics

Los Angeles Chargers

2026: 11-7 (last season) · Elo 1527 · #13 of 32 · 20.6 for, 19.8 against · ATS 9-9

Next: vs ARI · Sep 13

Rating trajectory The model's Elo after each week, this season in blue and last season in grey. 1500 is league average; every 22 (NFL) or 18 (college) points is about one point of spread.

15271500 = average

Model on this team

No locked picks graded yet this season.

How they play

Pass rate
64%
Early-down pass rate
59%
Neutral-script pass rate
60%
Pass rate over expected
+0.8%
Seconds per play
30.8
No-huddle
5%
Shotgun
72%
Play-action rate
23%
RPO rate
2%

Offense · best and worst (of 32)

Third-down conversion
#4 · 45%
Turnovers / game
#13 · 1.11
Pass success rate
#15 · 46%
Completion % over expected
#18 · +0.4
Red-zone touchdown rate
#30 · 46%
Sack rate
#29 · 9.1%
Explosive rush rate
#28 · 8.0%
YAC / completion
#26 · 4.7

Defense · best and worst (of 32)

Interceptions forced
#1 · 3.8%
Completion % over expected
#2 · −4.9
Red-zone touchdown rate
#2 · 44%
EPA / rush
#3 · −0.12
YAC / completion
#29 · 6.0
Explosive rush rate
#22 · 10.9%
Yards / rush
#14 · 4.1
Yards / dropback
#10 · 5.8

Los Angeles Chargers · key players

  • Justin Herbert QB21.1/31.9 · 229 yds/g · 26-13 TD-INT · +0.00 EPA/db
  • Keenan Allen WR7.2 tgt/g · 22% share · 45 yds/g · 4 TD · aDOT 8.3
  • Ladd McConkey WR6.5 tgt/g · 21% share · 48 yds/g · 6 TD · aDOT 9.9
  • Quentin Johnston WR6.4 tgt/g · 20% share · 54 yds/g · 8 TD · aDOT 11.6
  • Oronde Gadsden II TE4.5 tgt/g · 14% share · 43 yds/g · 3 TD · aDOT 8.9
  • Kimani Vidal RB12.8 car/g · 52 yds/g · 4.1 ypc · 3 TD · −0.10 EPA/car
  • Omarion Hampton RB12.5 car/g · 54 yds/g · 4.4 ypc · 4 TD · −0.01 EPA/car

2025 season, per game. Targets ranked by volume, rushers by carries.nflverse weekly player stats. Target share is the player's average share of his team's targets in the games he played. A player who changed teams carries his own games from last season.

2026 schedule
DateOpponentResultLineModelATSCLV
Sep 13W1vsArizona Cardinals-10LAC 74%
Sep 20W2vsLas Vegas Raiders-8.5
Sep 27W3atBuffalo Bills+3
Oct 4W4atSeattle Seahawks+3
Oct 11W5vsDenver Broncos-2.5
Oct 18W6atKansas City Chiefs+2.5
Nov 1W8atLos Angeles Rams
Nov 8W9vsHouston Texans
Nov 16W10atBaltimore Ravens
Nov 22W11vsNew York Jets
Nov 29W12vsNew England Patriots
Dec 6W13atTampa Bay Buccaneers
Dec 13W14atLas Vegas Raiders
Dec 17W15vsSan Francisco 49ers
Dec 27W16atMiami Dolphins
Jan 3W17vsKansas City Chiefs
Jan 10W18atDenver Broncos

Line is this team's spread. Model, ATS and CLV are shown only for picks locked before kickoff; 0 played.