Indianapolis Colts
2026: 8-9 (last season) · Elo 1464 · #22 of 32 · 27.4 for, 24.2 against · ATS 9-8
Rating trajectory The model's Elo after each week, this season in blue and last season in grey. 1500 is league average; every 22 (NFL) or 18 (college) points is about one point of spread.
Model on this team
No locked picks graded yet this season.
How they play
- Pass rate
- 60%
- Early-down pass rate
- 56%
- Neutral-script pass rate
- 56%
- Pass rate over expected
- −0.9%
- Seconds per play
- 30.1
- No-huddle
- 5%
- Shotgun
- 72%
- Play-action rate
- 28%
- RPO rate
- 9%
Offense · best and worst (of 32)
- EPA / rush
- #2 · +0.06
- Rush success rate
- #5 · 45%
- Red-zone touchdown rate
- #6 · 65%
- Sack rate
- #7 · 4.8%
- Interception rate
- #22 · 2.6%
- Turnovers / game
- #21 · 1.24
- Explosive pass rate
- #21 · 7.3%
- YAC / completion
- #17 · 5.0
Defense · best and worst (of 32)
- Yards / rush
- #5 · 3.8
- EPA / rush
- #8 · −0.09
- Red-zone touchdown rate
- #10 · 54%
- Takeaways / game
- #10 · 1.24
- Third-down conversion
- #25 · 43%
- Sack rate generated
- #24 · 5.6%
- Pass success rate
- #21 · 47%
- Yards / dropback
- #20 · 6.4
Indianapolis Colts · key players
- Daniel Jones QB20.1/29.5 · 239 yds/g · 19-8 TD-INT · +0.16 EPA/db
- Tyler Warren TEQuestionable6.6 tgt/g · 21% share · 48 yds/g · 4 TD · aDOT 5.4
- Michael Pittman WR6.5 tgt/g · 21% share · 46 yds/g · 7 TD · aDOT 8.2
- Josh Downs WRQuestionable5.5 tgt/g · 17% share · 35 yds/g · 4 TD · aDOT 7.5
- Alec Pierce WR5.6 tgt/g · 18% share · 67 yds/g · 6 TD · aDOT 19.0
- Jonathan Taylor RB19.0 car/g · 93 yds/g · 4.9 ypc · 18 TD · +0.06 EPA/car
- DJ Giddens RB5.2 car/g · 19 yds/g · 3.7 ypc · 0 TD · +0.00 EPA/car
2025 season, per game. Targets ranked by volume, rushers by carries.nflverse weekly player stats. Target share is the player's average share of his team's targets in the games he played. A player who changed teams carries his own games from last season.
2026 schedule
| Date | Opponent | Result | Line | Model | ATS | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13W1 | vs Baltimore Ravens | — | +3.5 | BAL 56% | — | — |
| Sep 20W2 | at Kansas City Chiefs | — | +6.5 | — | — | — |
| Sep 27W3 | vs Houston Texans | — | +1.5 | — | — | — |
| Oct 4W4 | vs Washington Commanders | — | +1.5 | — | — | — |
| Oct 11W5 | at Pittsburgh Steelers | — | +2.5 | — | — | — |
| Oct 18W6 | vs Tennessee Titans | — | -3.5 | — | — | — |
| Oct 25W7 | at Minnesota Vikings | — | +2.5 | — | — | — |
| Nov 1W8 | at Jacksonville Jaguars | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nov 8W9 | vs Dallas Cowboys | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nov 15W10 | vs Miami Dolphins | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nov 19W11 | atHouston Texans | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nov 29W12 | vs New York Giants | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dec 13W14 | at Philadelphia Eagles | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dec 20W15 | atTennessee Titans | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dec 27W16 | vs Cincinnati Bengals | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jan 3W17 | at Cleveland Browns | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jan 10W18 | vsJacksonville Jaguars | — | — | — | — | — |
Line is this team's spread. Model, ATS and CLV are shown only for picks locked before kickoff; 0 played.