Washington Commanders
2026: 5-12 (last season) · Elo 1461 · #23 of 32 · 20.9 for, 26.5 against · ATS 7-10
Rating trajectory The model's Elo after each week, this season in blue and last season in grey. 1500 is league average; every 22 (NFL) or 18 (college) points is about one point of spread.
Model on this team
No locked picks graded yet this season.
How they play
- Pass rate
- 58%
- Early-down pass rate
- 52%
- Neutral-script pass rate
- 50%
- Pass rate over expected
- −4.3%
- Seconds per play
- 29.9
- No-huddle
- 62%
- Shotgun
- 88%
- Play-action rate
- 26%
- RPO rate
- 8%
Offense · best and worst (of 32)
- Red-zone touchdown rate
- #4 · 65%
- Explosive rush rate
- #8 · 11.3%
- Pass success rate
- #9 · 48%
- Yards / rush
- #9 · 4.5
- Interception rate
- #23 · 2.6%
- Third-down conversion
- #21 · 38%
- YAC / completion
- #20 · 5.0
- Turnovers / game
- #19 · 1.24
Defense · best and worst (of 32)
- Sack rate generated
- #12 · 6.8%
- Third-down conversion
- #23 · 42%
- Explosive pass rate
- #25 · 8.9%
- Completion % over expected
- #25 · +2.2
- Takeaways / game
- #31 · 0.53
- Red-zone touchdown rate
- #31 · 68%
- YAC / completion
- #31 · 6.4
- Yards / dropback
- #31 · 7.2
Washington Commanders · key players
- Marcus Mariota QBQuestionable13.9/22.7 · 170 yds/g · 10-7 TD-INT · −0.02 EPA/db
- Deebo Samuel Sr. WR6.2 tgt/g · 25% share · 45 yds/g · 5 TD · aDOT 5.3
- Zach Ertz TE5.5 tgt/g · 19% share · 39 yds/g · 4 TD · aDOT 9.1
- Terry McLaurin WR6.0 tgt/g · 23% share · 58 yds/g · 3 TD · aDOT 14.0
- Jaylin Lane WR2.5 tgt/g · 10% share · 17 yds/g · 0 TD · aDOT 13.3
- Jacory Croskey-Merritt RBQuestionable10.3 car/g · 47 yds/g · 4.6 ypc · 8 TD · −0.04 EPA/car
- Chris Rodriguez Jr. RB9.3 car/g · 42 yds/g · 4.5 ypc · 6 TD · +0.06 EPA/car
2025 season, per game. Targets ranked by volume, rushers by carries.nflverse weekly player stats. Target share is the player's average share of his team's targets in the games he played. A player who changed teams carries his own games from last season.
2026 schedule
| Date | Opponent | Result | Line | Model | ATS | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13W1 | at Philadelphia Eagles | — | +5 | PHI 68% | — | — |
| Sep 20W2 | at Dallas Cowboys | — | +4.5 | — | — | — |
| Sep 27W3 | vs Seattle Seahawks | — | +3.5 | — | — | — |
| Oct 4W4 | vs Indianapolis Colts | — | -1.5 | — | — | — |
| Oct 11W5 | vs New York Giants | — | -1.5 | — | — | — |
| Oct 19W6 | at San Francisco 49ers | — | +5.5 | — | — | — |
| Nov 1W8 | vsPhiladelphia Eagles | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nov 8W9 | vs Los Angeles Rams | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nov 12W10 | atNew York Giants | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nov 23W11 | vs Cincinnati Bengals | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nov 29W12 | at Arizona Cardinals | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dec 6W13 | at Tennessee Titans | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dec 13W14 | vs Houston Texans | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dec 20W15 | vs Atlanta Falcons | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dec 27W16 | at Minnesota Vikings | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jan 3W17 | at Jacksonville Jaguars | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jan 10W18 | vsDallas Cowboys | — | — | — | — | — |
Line is this team's spread. Model, ATS and CLV are shown only for picks locked before kickoff; 0 played.