Probetrics — Sports Analytics

Nevada Wolf Pack

2026: 3-9 (last season) · Elo 1316 · #217 of 240 · 17.6 for, 27.5 against · ATS 5-6-1

Next: vs WKU · Sep 5

Rating trajectory The model's Elo after each week, this season in blue and last season in grey. 1500 is league average; every 22 (NFL) or 18 (college) points is about one point of spread.

13161500 = average

Model on this team

No locked picks graded yet this season.

SP+ (2026)
-11.7
SP+ (2025)
-13.4
Talent composite
550
Returning production
36%

How they play

Pass rate
42%
Standard-down share
66%
Plays / game
50
Possession / game
30:20

Offense · best and worst (of 135)

Rush explosiveness
#36 · 1.04
Yards / rush
#60 · 4.5
Power success
#69 · 72%
Stuff rate
#78 · 19%
Passing-down PPA
#135 · −0.05
Passing PPA / play
#134 · −0.02
Turnovers / game
#133 · 2.25
Points / scoring opportunity
#132 · 2.67

Defense · best and worst (of 135)

Pass explosiveness
#2 · 1.32
Interceptions forced
#5 · 4.8%
Passing PPA / play
#38 · +0.18
Third-down conversion
#55 · 38%
Rushing PPA / play
#125 · +0.22
Points / scoring opportunity
#112 · 4.15
Standard-down PPA
#109 · +0.16
Stuff rate forced
#109 · 16%
2026 schedule
DateOpponentResultLineModelATSCLV
Sep 5W1vsWestern Kentucky HilltoppersPKWKU 68%
Sep 12W2vsMontana State BobcatsMTST 66%
Sep 19W3atMiddle Tennessee Blue Raiders
Sep 26W4vsAir Force Falcons
Oct 10W6atUTEP Miners
Oct 17W7atNorth Dakota State Bison
Oct 24W8vsSan José State Spartans
Oct 31W9atUCLA Bruins
Nov 6W10vsNew Mexico Lobos
Nov 14W11atNorthern Illinois Huskies
Nov 21W12vsHawai'i Rainbow Warriors
Nov 28W13atUNLV Rebels

Line is this team's spread. Model, ATS and CLV are shown only for picks locked before kickoff; 0 played.