← College Football slate
Appalachian State Mountaineers
1-0 · #154 Elo
at
Sat, Oct 31, 12:00 AM ET
Allen E. Paulson Stadium
Georgia Southern Eagles
1-0 · #117 Elo
Spread —Total —Moneyline —
The read
On rating alone Georgia Southern Eagles are 1.7 points better (#117 vs #154 of 240), and GASO add 0.0 for home field.
Who has the edge
Rating
Slight edge
GASO
GASO rated 1.7 points better on Elo (#117 vs #154).
Home & rest
Even
—
GASO gets 0.0 points for home field.
Passing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
APP
GASO +31.0 per game over the last five, APP +52.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
not priced
—
No line yet.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Appalachian State MountaineersGeorgia Southern Eagles
1412 Elo · #154
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
GASO +1.7 pts
1444 Elo · #117
road
Home field
not priced
home
—
Rest
even
—
−3.1 pts vs GASO D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
GASO +0.7 pts
−2.4 pts vs APP D
W · +52.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
APP +10.5 pts
W · +31.0
−11.4
SP+ (last season)Bill Connelly's SP+ from last season, the prior the college model starts each season from.
GASO +2.0 pts
−9.4
—
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
not priced
—
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Season
| APP | GASO | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | Record | 1-0 |
| 55.0 | Points for / game | 31.0 |
| 3.0 | Points against / game | 0.0 |
| 1-0 / 0-0 | Home / road | 1-0 / 0-0 |
| 1-0 | Against the spread | 1-0 |
| 1-0 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 0-1 |
| W | Last 5 | W |
Power ratings
| APP | GASO | |
|---|---|---|
| 1412 | Elo | 1444 |
| #154 of 240 | Rank | #117 of 240 |
| +0.5 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | −0.3 |
| +2.1 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | +3.7 |
| 1407 | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | 1387 |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Advanced
| APP | GASO | |
|---|---|---|
| −12.7 | SP+ (this season)Bill Connelly's SP+ rating, points above average. | −10.8 |
| — | Offense PPA / playPredicted points added per play, garbage time excluded (CFBD). | 0.213 |
| — | Defense PPA / playPPA allowed per play — lower is better. | 0.276 |
| —% / —% | Success rate (off / def) | 45% / 49% |
| — / — | Explosiveness (off / def) | 1.23 / 1.25 |
| 622 | Talent composite247Sports team talent composite for the current roster. | 634 |
| 38% | Returning production | 6% |
Advanced stats are from 2025 until this season has about three games. Source: CollegeFootballData.
Head to head
| 2025 | GASO 29 vs APP 10 | GASO · GASO covered |
| 2025 | GASO 25 at APP 23 | GASO · GASO covered |
| 2024 | APP 20 at GASO 29 | GASO · GASO covered |
| 2023 | GASO 27 at APP 55 | APP · APP covered |
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- GASO +1.7 pts
- Home field
- GASO +— pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- — pts on the total
- Model margin
- —
- Model total
- —
Market
- Spread
- —
- Total
- —
- Moneyline
- —
Per-book prices appear once the multi-book feed has this game (about a week out).
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.