Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Kent State Golden Flashes
0-1 · #235 Elo
at
Fri, Oct 30, 10:30 PM ET
Hornet Stadium
Sacramento State Hornets
0-1 · #173 Elo
Spread —Total —Moneyline —

The read

On rating alone Sacramento State Hornets are 9.6 points better (#173 vs #235 of 240), and SAC add 0.0 for home field.

Who has the edge

Rating
Clear edge
SAC
SAC rated 9.6 points better on Elo (#173 vs #235).
Home & rest
Even
—
SAC gets 0.0 points for home field.
Passing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
SAC
SAC −11.0 per game over the last five, KENT −57.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
not priced
—
No line yet.
context · not in the margin

The margin, factor by factor

Kent State Golden FlashesSacramento State Hornets
1219 Elo · #235
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
SAC +9.6 pts
1392 Elo · #173
road
Home field
not priced
home
—
Rest
even
—
−4.1 pts vs SAC D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
SAC +8.6 pts
+4.5 pts vs KENT D
L · −57.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
SAC +23.0 pts
L · −11.0
—
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
not priced
—

Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).

Dissect the matchup

CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)

Season

KENTSAC
0-1Record0-1
0.0Points for / game17.0
57.0Points against / game28.0
0-0 / 0-1Home / road0-0 / 0-1
0-1Against the spread0-1
1-0Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean.0-1
LLast 5L

Power ratings

KENTSAC
1219Elo1392
#235 of 240Rank#173 of 240
−5.3Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted.−3.0
−7.4Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good.−1.2
1585Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season.1300

Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.

Advanced

KENTSAC
−22.4SP+ (this season)Bill Connelly's SP+ rating, points above average.—
0.094Offense PPA / playPredicted points added per play, garbage time excluded (CFBD).-0.077
0.195Defense PPA / playPPA allowed per play — lower is better.0.055
36% / 43%Success rate (off / def)34% / 41%
1.38 / 1.29Explosiveness (off / def)1.03 / 1.26
523Talent composite247Sports team talent composite for the current roster.—
64%Returning production—

Advanced stats are from 2025 until this season has about three games. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Head to head

No meetings in our history.

How the margin was built

Rating gap
SAC +9.6 pts
Home field
SAC +— pts
Rest
Even
Weather / roof
— pts on the total
Model margin
—
Model total
—

Market

Spread
—
Total
—
Moneyline
—

Per-book prices appear once the multi-book feed has this game (about a week out).

Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.