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North Carolina (4-3) hosts Miami (7-0) at Kenan Stadium on Oct 31, 2026, 7:30 PM ET.
The model's winner call: locked before the start, graded in public, built on the market's price.
MIA end zone ← 100 yards → UNC end zone
Wind is the direction it blows from. Halftime is about 1 hour 36 minutes in and the end about 3 hours 18 minutes in: a forecast, not a result.
A longer bar = a better setup for the offense: half from how high the offense ranks, half from how low the defense across from it ranks (of 137). A full bar is the best offense against the worst defense; the dashed tick is an even matchup. Biggest advantage first.
MIA has the clear advantage in havoc, third-down conversion, turnovers, rushing, passing and finishing drives.
MIA's defense has it in third-down conversion, turnovers, finishing drives and rushing.
MIA offensevs
UNC defenseMIA offense ranks better in 6 of 6 matchups (6 by a clear margin) · UNC defense in 0
UNC offensevsMIA defenseUNC offense ranks better in 1 of 6 matchups · MIA defense in 5 (4 by a clear margin)
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 137 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
| Book | UNC spread | Total | MIA ML | UNC ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM (opens BetMGM in a new tab) | +14.5(-115) | 52.5(-110/-108) | -650 | +500 |
| DraftKings (opens DraftKings in a new tab) | +14.5(-112) | 52.5(-110/-110) | -675 | +490 |
| FanDuel (opens FanDuel in a new tab) | +14.5(-110) | 52.5(-110/-110) | -690 | +500 |
| Hard Rock (opens Hard Rock in a new tab) | +14.5(-110) | 52.5(-105/-115) | -750 | +500 |
| Caesars (opens Caesars in a new tab) | +14.5(-110) | 52.5(-112/-108) | -750 | +500 |
Hover or tap a chart to read any hour; click to pin it.
Each line is the number most books post, a step at each hour a book changed one, since we first priced the game; the band is the lowest and highest number any book had up then (ring = first seen, dot = the latest pull). Spread: higher = the home side laying more. The moneyline is the home side's win chance with the books' margin removed.
They meet only some seasons (1 of the 4 in our history).
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the score. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. Sportsbook links may be affiliate links; we may earn a commission if you sign up through them.
The 6 measures where these two sit furthest apart among the league's 138 ranked teams, over each team's last 13 regular-season games (Oct 2025 – Oct 2026; 7 in 2026, 6 in 2025). A longer bar = higher in the league (rank 1 = highest, even for points allowed). A rank says where a number sits, not which side it points to.