North Carolina Tar Heels
2026: 1-0 · Elo 1469 · #89 of 240 · 15.0 for, 10.0 against · ATS 1-0
Rating trajectory The model's Elo after each week, this season in blue and last season in grey. 1500 is league average; every 22 (NFL) or 18 (college) points is about one point of spread.
Model on this team
No locked picks graded yet this season.
- SP+ (2026)
- +3.5
- SP+ (2025)
- -6.6
- Talent composite
- 768
- Returning production
- 28%
How they play
- Pass rate
- 50%
- Standard-down share
- 69%
- Plays / game
- 53
- Possession / game
- 28:25
Offense · best and worst (of 135)
- Interception rate
- #31 · 1.7%
- Completion %
- #48 · 64%
- Stuff rate
- #66 · 19%
- Turnovers / game
- #70 · 1.25
- Rushing PPA / play
- #129 · −0.03
- Rush explosiveness
- #127 · 0.80
- Standard-down PPA
- #125 · −0.02
- Yards / pass attempt
- #122 · 6.2
Defense · best and worst (of 135)
- Pass explosiveness
- #17 · 1.43
- Yards / rush
- #22 · 3.5
- Line yards / rush
- #37 · 2.72
- Yards / pass attempt
- #41 · 6.6
- Power success
- #134 · 89%
- Interceptions forced
- #114 · 1.6%
- Takeaways / game
- #105 · 1.00
- Third-down conversion
- #104 · 42%
2026 schedule
| Date | Opponent | Result | Line | Model | ATS | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29W1 | vs TCU Horned Frogs | W 15–10 | +7.5 | TCU 77% | — | — |
| Sep 12W2 | vs East Tennessee State Buccaneers | — | — | UNC 61% | — | — |
| Sep 19W3 | at Clemson Tigers | — | — | — | — | — |
| Oct 3W5 | vs #4 Notre Dame Fighting Irish | — | +23.5 | — | — | — |
| Oct 10W6 | at Pittsburgh Panthers | — | — | — | — | — |
| Oct 17W7 | at Duke Blue Devils | — | +4.5 | — | — | — |
| Oct 24W8 | vs Syracuse Orange | — | — | — | — | — |
| Oct 31W9 | vs #7 Miami Hurricanes | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nov 7W10 | at UConn Huskies | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nov 14W11 | vs #24 Louisville Cardinals | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nov 21W12 | at Virginia Cavaliers | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nov 28W13 | vs NC State Wolfpack | — | +1.5 | — | — | — |
Line is this team's spread. Model, ATS and CLV are shown only for picks locked before kickoff; 1 played.