Probetrics — Sports Analytics

Oregon Ducks

2026: 1-0 · Elo 1896 · #3 of 240 · 34.0 for, 27.0 against · ATS 0-1

Next: at OKST · Sep 12

Rating trajectory The model's Elo after each week, this season in blue and last season in grey. 1500 is league average; every 22 (NFL) or 18 (college) points is about one point of spread.

18961500 = average

Model on this team

Winner calls
1/1
Against the spread
1-0
Avg CLV
0.00 pts
SP+ (2026)
+29.2
SP+ (2025)
+25.9
Talent composite
984
Returning production
75%

How they play

Pass rate
46%
Standard-down share
74%
Plays / game
55
Possession / game
30:49

Offense · best and worst (of 135)

Completion %
#3 · 72%
Standard-down PPA
#4 · +0.27
Havoc rate faced
#4 · 10.9%
Pass success rate
#13 · 49%
Interception rate
#100 · 3.4%
Power success
#73 · 71%
Line yards / rush
#45 · 3.08
Rush explosiveness
#42 · 1.04

Defense · best and worst (of 135)

Completion %
#4 · 53%
Yards / pass attempt
#6 · 5.6
Standard-down PPA
#11 · −0.04
Pass success rate
#14 · 36%
Stuff rate forced
#99 · 17%
Points / scoring opportunity
#92 · 3.90
Pass explosiveness
#89 · 1.59
Rush explosiveness
#78 · 0.98
2026 schedule
DateOpponentResultLineModelATSCLV
Sep 5W1vsBoise State BroncosW 34–27-24.5ORE 83%win0.0
Sep 12W2atOklahoma State Cowboys-21.5ORE 97%
Sep 18W3vsPortland State Vikings
Sep 26W4at#14 USC Trojans-5.5
Oct 10W6vsUCLA Bruins
Oct 17W7vsNebraska Cornhuskers-21.5
Oct 24W8atIllinois Fighting Illini
Oct 31W9vsNorthwestern Wildcats
Nov 7W10at#1 Ohio State Buckeyes+6
Nov 14W11vs#16 Michigan Wolverines-13.5
Nov 20W12atMichigan State Spartans
Nov 28W13vs#17 Washington Huskies-15.5

Line is this team's spread. Model, ATS and CLV are shown only for picks locked before kickoff; 1 played.