Fight Edges

Where the Probetrics fight model disagrees most with the sportsbooks, grouped by event. Edge = our win probability minus the market's (vig removed) — the listed fighter is the value side at the listed price. Bigger gaps deserve more skepticism, not more money. Bouts priced by fewer than four sportsbooks are left off entirely: with that little coverage the "market" is one opinion, and disagreeing with it is not an edge. Experimental — not betting advice.

Fight winner edges

UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. SongSat, Aug 29

Aoriqileng UFC

vs Kai Asakura · Bantamweight · 6:00 AM ET

+16.2%

Model

37%

Market

21%

best price: +370 BovadaFight breakdown →

Denise Gomes UFC

vs Yan Xiaonan · W Strawweight · 6:00 AM ET

+15.5%

Model

58%

Market

43%

best price: +130 BovadaFight breakdown →

Kevin Borjas UFC

vs Rei Tsuruya · Flyweight · 3:00 AM ET

+13.0%

Model

27%

Market

14%

best price: +596 pinnacleFight breakdown →

Nilson Rojas UFC

vs Bilal Hasan · Flyweight · 6:00 AM ET

+12.9%

Model

27%

Market

14%

best price: +575 BovadaFight breakdown →

Cameron Nelson UFC

vs Ding Meng · Welterweight · 3:00 AM ET

+12.3%

Model

57%

Market

44%

best price: +120 DraftKingsFight breakdown →

Namsrai Batbayar UFC

vs Andre Lima · Flyweight · 3:00 AM ET

+12.3%

Model

42%

Market

29%

best price: +235 pinnacleFight breakdown →

Song Yadong UFC

vs Umar Nurmagomedov · Bantamweight · 6:00 AM ET

+10.8%

Model

28%

Market

17%

best price: +475 BovadaFight breakdown →

Alex Perez UFC

vs Sumudaerji · Flyweight · 6:00 AM ET

+10.4%

Model

44%

Market

33%

best price: +195 Hard RockFight breakdown →

Jack Jenkins UFC

vs Sean Woodson · Featherweight · 3:00 AM ET

+9.1%

Model

51%

Market

42%

best price: +134 FanDuelFight breakdown →

Hector Santiago UFC

vs Lawrence Lui · Bantamweight · 3:00 AM ET

+5.3%

Model

34%

Market

29%

best price: +230 BovadaFight breakdown →

Jingnan Xiong UFC

vs Julia Polastri · W Strawweight · 3:00 AM ET

+3.7%

Model

35%

Market

31%

best price: +210 FanDuelFight breakdown →

UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. ParnasseSat, Sep 5

Nursulton Ruziboev UFC

vs Michael Page · Middleweight · 3:00 PM ET

+17.7%

Model

54%

Market

36%

best price: +168 BovadaFight breakdown →

Klaudia Syguła UFC

vs Nora Cornolle · W Bantamweight · 12:00 PM ET

+14.1%

Model

60%

Market

46%

best price: +111 pinnacleFight breakdown →

Luis Felipe Dias UFC

vs Matthieu Letho Duclos · Middleweight · 12:00 PM ET

+12.1%

Model

65%

Market

53%

best price: -113 pinnacleFight breakdown →

Sofia Montenegro UFC

vs Delphine Benouaich · W Strawweight · 12:00 PM ET

+11.0%

Model

50%

Market

39%

best price: +153 pinnacleFight breakdown →

Morgan Charrière UFC

vs Felipe Lima · Featherweight · 3:00 PM ET

+10.9%

Model

46%

Market

35%

best price: +173 BovadaFight breakdown →

Axel Sola UFC

vs Farés Ziam · Lightweight · 3:00 PM ET

+9.0%

Model

51%

Market

42%

best price: +131 pinnacleFight breakdown →

Muhammad Naimov UFC

vs Losene Keita · Featherweight · 3:00 PM ET

+8.9%

Model

36%

Market

27%

best price: +263 pinnacleFight breakdown →

Dan Hooker UFC

vs Salahdine Parnasse · Lightweight · 3:00 PM ET

+8.6%

Model

28%

Market

19%

best price: +401 pinnacleFight breakdown →

Mairon Santos UFC

vs Nathaniel Wood · Featherweight · 12:00 PM ET

+6.9%

Model

61%

Market

54%

best price: -130 BovadaFight breakdown →

Mario Pinto UFC

vs Ryan Spann · Heavyweight · 12:00 PM ET

+5.3%

Model

75%

Market

70%

best price: -260 BovadaFight breakdown →

Oumar Sy UFC

vs Modestas Bukauskas · Light Heavyweight · 12:00 PM ET

+3.9%

Model

66%

Market

62%

best price: -178 FanDuelFight breakdown →

Trevor Peek UFC

vs Kurtis Campbell · Featherweight · 12:00 PM ET

+3.8%

Model

29%

Market

26%

best price: +279 pinnacleFight breakdown →

Edge = model win probability − devigged market probability at the best available moneyline. Affiliate links marked; 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.