Model Edges — all sports
Where Probetrics Score v0 disagrees most with the sportsbooks tonight, across every live league. Positive edge = our model likes the Over more than the market does; negative = the Under. Fight and match winner edges live on each matchup page. Experimental — not betting advice.
Fight winner edges
Tommy McMillen UFC
vs Alberto Montes · Featherweight · 5:00 PM ET
Model
75%
Market
49%
best price: -102 FanDuelFight breakdown →
John Garza UFC
vs Farid Basharat · Bantamweight · 6:00 PM ET
Model
40%
Market
16%
best price: +525 BetOnlineFight breakdown →
Nikita Krylov UFC
vs Robert Whittaker · Light Heavyweight · 8:35 PM ET
Model
66%
Market
45%
best price: +120 BetOnlineFight breakdown →
Tabatha Ricci UFC
vs Fatima Kline · W Strawweight · 6:00 PM ET
Model
42%
Market
24%
best price: +309 BetUSFight breakdown →
Mario Bautista UFC
vs Cory Sandhagen · Bantamweight · 10:15 PM ET
Model
61%
Market
43%
best price: +130 BetMGMFight breakdown →
vs Paddy Pimblett · Lightweight · 10:50 PM ET
Model
75%
Market
57%
best price: -130 CaesarsFight breakdown →
vs King Green · Lightweight · 9:15 PM ET
Model
67%
Market
50%
best price: -102 BetOnlineFight breakdown →
Elisha Ellison UFC
vs Gable Steveson · Heavyweight · 8:15 PM ET
Model
25%
Market
9%
best price: +1050 BetRiversFight breakdown →
Stewart Nicoll UFC
vs Alden Coria · Flyweight · 5:00 PM ET
Model
29%
Market
12%
best price: +675 BetOnlineFight breakdown →
Khalil Rountree UFC
vs Magomed Ankalaev · Light Heavyweight · 12:00 PM ET
Model
40%
Market
27%
best price: +260 BetOnlineFight breakdown →
Felipe Franco UFC
vs Levi Rodrigues · Light Heavyweight · 5:00 AM ET
Model
49%
Market
37%
best price: +160 BetOnlineFight breakdown →
Conor McGregor UFC
vs Max Holloway · Welterweight · 11:20 PM ET
Model
39%
Market
28%
best price: +250 BetOnlineFight breakdown →
Tristan Peters MLB
CWS vs OAK · 2:10 PM ET
Over 0.5Total Bases
season avg 1.33 · model proj 2.32
Model
80%
Market
50%
Fair +100Model EV +55.0%1/4-Kelly 14.9% of bankroll
best over: -108 BetOnline
Jake McCarthy MLB
COL @ SF · 4:05 PM ET
Over 0.5RBIs
season avg 0.47 · model proj 1.03
Model
57%
Market
31%
Fair +227Model EV +77.8%1/4-Kelly 9.3% of bankroll
best over: +210 BetRiversBet slip →
Carson Benge MLB
NYM vs BOS · 4:10 PM ET
Over 0.5Total Bases
season avg 1.56 · model proj 1.75
Model
83%
Market
58%
Fair -135Model EV +35.5%1/4-Kelly 14.2% of bankroll
best over: -160 BetMGMBet slip →
Esmerlyn Valdez MLB
PIT vs MIL · 6:40 PM ET
Over 0.5Total Bases
season avg 2.35 · model proj 2.29
Model
82%
Market
58%
Fair -140Model EV +32.2%1/4-Kelly 13.3% of bankroll
best over: -165 BetMGMBet slip →
Esmerlyn Valdez MLB
PIT vs MIL · 6:40 PM ET
Over 0.5RBIs
season avg 0.92 · model proj 0.88
Model
56%
Market
33%
Fair +207Model EV +60.6%1/4-Kelly 8.2% of bankroll
best over: +186 DraftKingsBet slip →
Otto Lopez MLB
MIA vs CLE · 4:10 PM ET
Over 1.5Total Bases
season avg 1.56 · model proj 2.40
Model
66%
Market
42%
Fair +137Model EV +45.4%1/4-Kelly 9.3% of bankroll
best over: +122 DraftKingsBet slip →
CHC @ CIN · 7:10 PM ET
Over 1.5Total Bases
season avg 1.66 · model proj 2.47
Model
70%
Market
46%
Fair +115Model EV +44.7%1/4-Kelly 10.3% of bankroll
best over: +108 BetRiversBet slip →
Garrett Mitchell MLB
MIL @ PIT · 6:40 PM ET
Over 0.5Total Bases
season avg 1.35 · model proj 1.81
Model
77%
Market
54%
Fair -120Model EV +32.3%1/4-Kelly 11.3% of bankroll
best over: -140 BetMGMBet slip →
Jake Bauers MLB
MIL @ PIT · 6:40 PM ET
Over 0.5RBIs
season avg 0.47 · model proj 0.83
Model
51%
Market
29%
Fair +249Model EV +65.8%1/4-Kelly 7.3% of bankroll
best over: +226 DraftKingsBet slip →
Kazuma Okamoto MLB
TOR @ SD · 8:40 PM ET
Over 0.5RBIs
season avg 0.69 · model proj 0.93
Model
55%
Market
33%
Fair +200Model EV +54.9%1/4-Kelly 7.6% of bankroll
best over: +180 BetMGMBet slip →
James Wood MLB
WSH vs NYY · 4:05 PM ET
Over 1.5Total Bases
season avg 1.85 · model proj 2.33
Model
63%
Market
42%
Fair +140Model EV +42.6%1/4-Kelly 8.5% of bankroll
best over: +125 Bovada
Rafael Devers MLB
SF vs COL · 4:05 PM ET
Over 1.5Total Bases
season avg 1.86 · model proj 2.88
Model
63%
Market
42%
Fair +140Model EV +42.1%1/4-Kelly 8.4% of bankroll
best over: +126 BetOnline
Cole Carrigg MLB
COL @ SF · 4:05 PM ET
Over 0.5Runs Scored
season avg 0.82 · model proj 0.93
Model
61%
Market
40%
Fair +153Model EV +42.7%1/4-Kelly 7.9% of bankroll
best over: +135 BetMGMBet slip →
CWS vs OAK · 2:10 PM ET
Over 0.5Total Bases
season avg 1.93 · model proj 2.29
Model
78%
Market
57%
Fair -131Model EV +27.9%1/4-Kelly 10.8% of bankroll
best over: -155 BetMGMBet slip →
Wyatt Langford MLB
TEX vs HOU · 7:05 PM ET
Over 1.5Total Bases
season avg 1.63 · model proj 2.39
Model
64%
Market
43%
Fair +130Model EV +37.5%1/4-Kelly 8.2% of bankroll
best over: +115 DraftKingsBet slip →
Luis Arraez MLB
SF vs COL · 4:05 PM ET
Over 1.5Total Bases
season avg 1.65 · model proj 2.43
Model
65%
Market
45%
Fair +123Model EV +36.9%1/4-Kelly 8.4% of bankroll
best over: +110 Bovada
CWS vs OAK · 2:10 PM ET
Over 0.5RBIs
season avg 0.71 · model proj 0.92
Model
54%
Market
34%
Fair +197Model EV +50.6%1/4-Kelly 7.0% of bankroll
best over: +180 BetMGMBet slip →
Ezequiel Duran MLB
TEX vs HOU · 7:05 PM ET
Over 0.5RBIs
season avg 0.33 · model proj 0.69
Model
45%
Market
25%
Fair +307Model EV +70.1%1/4-Kelly 6.2% of bankroll
best over: +281 DraftKingsBet slip →
Brandon Pfaadt MLB
AZ @ LAD · 9:10 PM ET
Over 14.5Pitcher Outs
season avg 16.51 · model proj 17.02
Model
72%
Market
52%
Fair -110Model EV +33.5%1/4-Kelly 9.9% of bankroll
best over: -118 BetMGMBet slip →
Isaac Collins MLB
KC @ BAL · 7:05 PM ET
Over 0.5Total Bases
season avg 1.12 · model proj 1.54
Model
75%
Market
56%
Fair -126Model EV +28.9%1/4-Kelly 10.2% of bankroll
best over: -141 CaesarsBet slip →
Kazuma Okamoto MLB
TOR @ SD · 8:40 PM ET
Over 0.5Total Bases
season avg 1.73 · model proj 1.97
Model
77%
Market
58%
Fair -135Model EV +25.2%1/4-Kelly 10.1% of bankroll
best over: -160 BetMGMBet slip →
Jake Bauers MLB
MIL @ PIT · 6:40 PM ET
Over 0.5Total Bases
season avg 1.19 · model proj 1.91
Model
73%
Market
53%
Fair -115Model EV +26.8%1/4-Kelly 9.1% of bankroll
best over: -135 BetMGMBet slip →
Kody Clemens MLB
MIN vs LAA · 2:10 PM ET
Over 0.5RBIs
season avg 0.49 · model proj 0.88
Model
61%
Market
42%
Fair +141Model EV +35.8%1/4-Kelly 7.3% of bankroll
best over: +123 DraftKingsBet slip →
Wyatt Langford MLB
TEX vs HOU · 7:05 PM ET
Over 0.5RBIs
season avg 0.51 · model proj 0.81
Model
55%
Market
35%
Fair +183Model EV +47.2%1/4-Kelly 6.9% of bankroll
best over: +170 BetRiversBet slip →
Ben Malgeri MLB
DET vs PHI · 6:10 PM ET
Over 0.5RBIs
season avg 0.50 · model proj 0.50
Model
42%
Market
24%
Fair +325Model EV +69.1%1/4-Kelly 5.8% of bankroll
best over: +298 DraftKingsBet slip →
Denzer Guzman MLB
LAA @ MIN · 2:10 PM ET
Over 0.5Total Bases
season avg 1.39 · model proj 1.40
Model
73%
Market
54%
Fair -120Model EV +25.6%1/4-Kelly 8.9% of bankroll
best over: -140 BetMGMBet slip →
Junior Caminero MLB
TB vs SEA · 4:10 PM ET
Over 1.5Total Bases
season avg 2.03 · model proj 2.49
Model
64%
Market
46%
Fair +119Model EV +34.5%1/4-Kelly 7.8% of bankroll
best over: +110 BetOnline
Chase DeLauter MLB
CLE @ MIA · 4:10 PM ET
Over 1.5Total Bases
season avg 1.64 · model proj 1.92
Model
58%
Market
39%
Fair +155Model EV +38.7%1/4-Kelly 6.9% of bankroll
best over: +141 BetOnline
Reynaldo López MLB
ATL @ STL · 7:15 PM ET
Over 3.5Pitcher Strikeouts
season avg 5.26 · model proj 4.53
Model
66%
Market
48%
Fair +108Model EV +31.2%1/4-Kelly 7.9% of bankroll
best over: -102 FanDuelBet slip →
Yainer Diaz MLB
HOU @ TEX · 7:05 PM ET
Over 0.5Total Bases
season avg 1.65 · model proj 1.84
Model
80%
Market
62%
Fair -163Model EV +19.5%1/4-Kelly 9.7% of bankroll
best over: -200 BetMGMBet slip →
Edge = model P(over) − devigged market P(over) at the current mainline. Affiliate links marked; 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.