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Predictions · Disagreements

Where we differ from the market

Games where our pick was not the betting favorite. History and a current list, not bets.
Wherever a game is priced, our winner call is built on the sportsbooks' no-vig price, so it takes the other side of the favorite only rarely. This page shows every time it has, how those went, and the open games where it does now. It is not a list of bets: so far the favorite has done better on those games.

The record of disagreementsGraded games where our pick was not the betting favorite, from the same counted picks as every record.

58 of 635 priced games

We took the other side of the betting favorite on 58 of 635 graded games that had a price. We won 20 of them; the favorite won 38.

On the other 577 games we picked the favorite and won 433. Across all 635, our picks won 453 and the betting favorite won 471.

SportPricedOther sideWe wonFav. won
NFL77624
College Football3383510 (29%)25
WNBA16101
NHL850——
UFC1191688

Priced = graded games with a moneyline; other side = our pick was not the favorite. “Favorite” is the side with the shorter no-vig moneyline when the pick was locked. A percentage appears once a row has 30 games; before that the count is all there is. Most of these picks were locked before the call followed the market.

Every graded disagreementOne row per game where our pick was not the favorite, newest first.

58
DateSportGameOur pickResult
Oct 4WNBALas Vegas Aces at Golden State ValkyriesLas Vegas Aces 50%Lost✗
Sep 27NFLLos Angeles Rams at Denver BroncosDenver Broncos 51%Won✓
Sep 26CFBGeorgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Stanford CardinalStanford Cardinal 55%Won✓
Sep 26CFBMassachusetts Minutemen at Sacramento State HornetsSacramento State Hornets 50%Lost✗
Sep 26CFBOregon State Beavers at UTEP MinersUTEP Miners 51%Lost✗
Sep 26UFCMelissa Amaya vs Tina BlackMelissa Amaya 59%Lost✗
Sep 26CFBMissouri Tigers at Mississippi State BulldogsMissouri Tigers 53%Lost✗
Sep 26CFBOregon Ducks at USC TrojansUSC Trojans 59%Lost✗
Sep 26CFBTroy Trojans at Utah State AggiesTroy Trojans 64%Lost✗
Sep 26UFCJosiah Harrell vs Elves BrenerElves Brener 56%Won✓
Sep 26UFCRodolfo Vieira vs Robert BryczekRobert Bryczek 51%Lost✗
Sep 26CFBVanderbilt Commodores at Auburn TigersVanderbilt Commodores 53%Lost✗
Sep 26CFBOle Miss Rebels at Florida GatorsOle Miss Rebels 79%Lost✗
Sep 26CFBUConn Huskies at Miami (OH) RedHawksUConn Huskies 54%Lost✗
Sep 20NFLCarolina Panthers at Atlanta FalconsAtlanta Falcons 58%Lost✗
Sep 19CFBJames Madison Dukes at San Diego State AztecsJames Madison Dukes 66%Won✓
Sep 19UFCJoshua Van vs Alexandre PantojaJoshua Van 54%Won✓
Sep 19CFBLSU Tigers at Ole Miss RebelsOle Miss Rebels 78%Won✓
Sep 19CFBVirginia Tech Hokies at Maryland TerrapinsMaryland Terrapins 71%Lost✗
Sep 19CFBFlorida Gators at Auburn TigersAuburn Tigers 54%Lost✗
Sep 19CFBNevada Wolf Pack at Middle Tennessee Blue RaidersMiddle Tennessee Blue Raiders 53%Won✓
Sep 19CFBLouisiana Tech Bulldogs at Baylor BearsLouisiana Tech Bulldogs 53%Lost✗
Sep 19CFBSMU Mustangs at Louisville CardinalsSMU Mustangs 52%Lost✗
Sep 19CFBWyoming Cowboys at Central Michigan ChippewasCentral Michigan Chippewas 61%Won✓
Sep 19CFBNorth Texas Mean Green at Texas State BobcatsNorth Texas Mean Green 66%Lost✗
Sep 14NFLDenver Broncos at Kansas City ChiefsDenver Broncos 52%Lost✗
Sep 13NFLDallas Cowboys at New York GiantsNew York Giants 54%Won✓
Sep 13NFLMiami Dolphins at Las Vegas RaidersMiami Dolphins 54%Lost✗
Sep 13NFLBuffalo Bills at Houston TexansHouston Texans 53%Lost✗
Sep 12CFBMontana State Bobcats at Nevada Wolf PackNevada Wolf Pack 92%Lost✗
Sep 12CFBNorth Dakota State Bison at Air Force FalconsAir Force Falcons 79%Lost✗
Sep 12CFBOhio State Buckeyes at Texas LonghornsOhio State Buckeyes 62%Lost✗
Sep 12CFBIllinois State Redbirds at Northern Illinois HuskiesNorthern Illinois Huskies 81%Lost✗
Sep 12CFBMemphis Tigers at Boise State BroncosMemphis Tigers 55%Lost✗
Sep 12CFBUNLV Rebels at North Texas Mean GreenNorth Texas Mean Green 69%Won✓
Sep 12CFBMississippi State Bulldogs at Minnesota Golden GophersMinnesota Golden Gophers 58%Lost✗
Sep 12CFBCalifornia Golden Bears at Syracuse OrangeCalifornia Golden Bears 50%Won✓
Sep 12CFBMaryland Terrapins at UConn HuskiesUConn Huskies 67%Lost✗
Sep 12CFBOld Dominion Monarchs at Virginia Tech HokiesOld Dominion Monarchs 71%Lost✗
Sep 12CFBSouth Florida Bulls at Army Black KnightsSouth Florida Bulls 59%Won✓
Sep 5CFBUCLA Bruins at California Golden BearsCalifornia Golden Bears 62%Lost✗
Sep 5CFBMississippi Valley State Delta Devils at Sacramento State HornetsMississippi Valley State Delta Devils 57%Lost✗
Sep 5CFBMurray State Racers at Middle Tennessee Blue RaidersMurray State Racers 54%Lost✗
Sep 5CFBWyoming Cowboys at Colorado State RamsWyoming Cowboys 50%Lost✗
Sep 5CFBOklahoma State Cowboys at Tulsa Golden HurricaneTulsa Golden Hurricane 64%Won✓
Sep 5CFBThe Citadel Bulldogs at Charlotte 49ersThe Citadel Bulldogs 65%Won✓
Sep 5UFCAxel Sola vs Farés ZiamAxel Sola 51%Won✓
Sep 5UFCNursulton Ruziboev vs Michael PageNursulton Ruziboev 53%Lost✗
Aug 29UFCDenise Gomes vs Yan XiaonanDenise Gomes 58%Won✓
Aug 22UFCShamil Gaziev vs Kennedy NzechukwuKennedy Nzechukwu 60%Lost✗
Aug 15UFCGillian Robertson vs Mackenzie DernGillian Robertson 51%Lost✗
Aug 1UFCRobert Valentin vs Duško TodorovićDuško Todorović 56%Lost✗
Aug 1UFCNoah Gugnon vs Milos JanicicMilos Janicic 50%Lost✗
Jul 25UFCMuhammad Said vs Dustin JacobyMuhammad Said 67%Won✓
Jul 18UFCJose Miguel Delgado vs Austin BashiJose Miguel Delgado 52%Won✓
Jul 18UFCAlvin Hines vs RJ HarrisRJ Harris 73%Won✓
Jul 18UFCDione Barbosa vs Anna MelisanoAnna Melisano 59%Lost✗
Jul 18UFCDamien Anderson vs Ezra ElliottEzra Elliott 56%Won✓
Pro

Open disagreements are part of Pro

The games still to be played where our pick is not the market favorite. The whole record above stays free.

Pro picks

Model reads and history, not personalized advice. Past results are not a promise of future returns. The full record · Every counted pick. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.