Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Troy Trojans
2-1
Model predicts
23 – 17
Sat, Sep 26, 7:30 PM ET
Maverik Stadium · 79° · Mostly sunny
Utah State Aggies
0-3
Spread USU -3 (opened USU -2.5)Total 47.5Moneyline TROY +125 · USU -1487 books · best TROY +130 hardrockbet · USU -145 bovada
Save imageSquare
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Solid
TROY +125
64%
model margin TROY by 6.0
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean +
TROY +3
53%
9.0 pts from the number
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean +
Under 47.5
53%
model total 40.2

The read

The clearest mismatch is the rushing game: TROY rushing ranks #93, USU defends it at #75; the other way USU #130 into TROY's #32. The model lands on TROY by 6.0 against a market USU by 3, so the spread lean is TROY by 9.0 points — a lean for reading the game, not the call itself. On the total the model sees 40.2 against 47.5.

Who has the edge

Model: TROY by 6.0 · market USU by 3
Passing game
Clear edge
TROY
TROY passing ranks #83, USU defends it at #74; the other way USU #126 into TROY's #49.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Clear edge
TROY
TROY rushing ranks #93, USU defends it at #75; the other way USU #130 into TROY's #32.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Slight edge
TROY
TROY third-down conversion ranks #111, USU defends it at #102; the other way USU #53 into TROY's #39.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
TROY
USU −15.7 per game over the last five, TROY +3.3.
context · not in the margin
Market
Slight edge
USU
Consensus has USU by 3; the model says TROY by 6.0.
context · not in the margin

Where the lines sit Every FBS final since 2023, counted by margin and by total. The dashed lines are the market's number and the model's; the bright bars between them are the share of history that landed in the gap — the games the two numbers actually disagree about. Key numbers (the most common margins) are the pale bars.

3,024 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket USU by 3 · model TROY by 6.0
Mkt USU 3
Model TROY 6.0
-28028

13.6% of FBS games land between the two numbers — the zone where the model’s side covers and the market’s does not. The market is on 3, a number 9.3% of games land on exactly (a push). The model’s number is across the key number 3. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.6%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).

Totalmarket 47.5 · model 40.2
Mkt 47.5
Model 40.2
246096

14.7% of FBS games finish between 47.5 and 40.2 — the games where the under cashes on the model’s read but not by much. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.

Sharp read Sharp money cannot be seen; who moved first can. Pinnacle and the other market makers move on the bets they respect and retail books copy them hours later. This tracks the market maker's number against retail, its move since the open, and whether the market followed. Recording started September 2026 and it is graded on its own — it is not a pick until a season of results says it should be.

— tap to see the market-maker read ↓
Spread
Sharp side: USU · model disagrees
Opened
USU -2.5
Pinnacle now
USU -3(+0.8)
Retail now
USU -3
Moves
9 across 7 books · 1 led

First sharp move Mon 1:20 PM: USU -2.5 → USU -3, 5 books followed within six hours; retail was still USU -2.5.Steam Mon 1:20 PM

Total
Sharp side: the under · model agrees
Opened
52.5
Pinnacle now
47(-2.5)
Retail now
47.5-0.5 behind
Moves
25 across 7 books · 5 led

First sharp move Tue 7:20 PM: 49 → 48, 0 books followed within six hours; retail was still 47.5.

Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.