Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Los Angeles Rams
1-1
Model predicts
16 – 19
Sun, Sep 27, 8:20 PM ET
Empower Field at Mile High · 82° · 20 mph wind · Intermittent clouds
Denver Broncos
1-1
Spread LAR -2.5 (opened LAR -3)Total 44.5Moneyline LAR -135 · DEN +1157 books · best LAR -134 pinnacle · DEN +122 betonlineag
Save imageSquare
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Lean
DEN +115
58%
model margin DEN by 2.8
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean +
DEN +2.5
52%
5.3 pts from the number
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean +
Under 44.5
54%
model total 34.7 · best under 45 at betmgm

The read

The clearest mismatch is the rushing game: LAR rushing ranks #4, DEN defends it at #10; the other way DEN #19 into LAR's #7. The model lands on DEN by 2.8 against a market LAR by 2.5, so the spread lean is DEN by 5.3 points — a lean for reading the game, not the call itself. On the total the model sees 34.7 against 44.5.

Who has the edge

Model: DEN by 2.8 · market LAR by 2.5
Passing game
Slight edge
LAR
LAR passing ranks #2, DEN defends it at #7; the other way DEN #12 into LAR's #11.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Clear edge
LAR
LAR rushing ranks #4, DEN defends it at #10; the other way DEN #19 into LAR's #7.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Even
—
DEN third-down conversion ranks #13, LAR defends it at #12; the other way LAR #23 into DEN's #6.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
LAR
DEN −7.0 per game over the last five, LAR +1.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
Slight edge
LAR
Consensus has LAR by 2.5; the model says DEN by 2.8.
context · not in the margin

Where the lines sit Every NFL final since 2012, counted by margin and by total. The dashed lines are the market's number and the model's; the bright bars between them are the share of history that landed in the gap — the games the two numbers actually disagree about. Key numbers (the most common margins) are the pale bars.

3,862 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket LAR by 2.5 · model DEN by 2.8
Mkt LAR 2.5
Model DEN 2.8
-28028

9.5% of NFL games land between the two numbers — the zone where the model’s side covers and the market’s does not. Most common margins: 3 (14.4%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).

Totalmarket 44.5 · model 34.7
Mkt 44.5
Model 34.7
204672

27.9% of NFL games finish between 44.5 and 34.7 — the games where the under cashes on the model’s read but not by much. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.

Sharp read Sharp money cannot be seen; who moved first can. Pinnacle and the other market makers move on the bets they respect and retail books copy them hours later. This tracks the market maker's number against retail, its move since the open, and whether the market followed. Recording started September 2026 and it is graded on its own — it is not a pick until a season of results says it should be.

— tap to see the market-maker read ↓
Spread
No sharp side yet
Opened
LAR -2
Pinnacle now
LAR -2.5
Retail now
LAR -2.5
Moves
7 across 7 books
Total
Sharp side: the under · model agrees
Opened
46.5
Pinnacle now
44.8(-0.8)
Retail now
44.5
Moves
14 across 7 books · 5 led

First sharp move Wed 9:26 AM: 45.5 → 44.5, 0 books followed within six hours; retail was still 45.5.

Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.