Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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UConn Huskies
2-1
Model predicts
31 – 30
Sat, Sep 26, 3:30 PM ET
Yager Stadium · 71° · Sunny
Miami (OH) RedHawks
1-2
Spread M-OH -3.5 (opened M-OH -3)Total 51.5Moneyline CONN +153 · M-OH -1757 books · best CONN +160 bovada · M-OH -162 fanduel
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WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Lean
CONN +153
54%
model margin CONN by 1.7
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean +
CONN +3.5
52%
5.2 pts from the number · best CONN +4 at betonlineag
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean +
Over 51.5
53%
model total 61.2

The read

The clearest mismatch is the third down & red zone: CONN third-down conversion ranks #48, M-OH defends it at #122; the other way M-OH #64 into CONN's #86. The model lands on CONN by 1.7 against a market M-OH by 3.5, so the spread lean is CONN by 5.2 points — a lean for reading the game, not the call itself. On the total the model sees 61.2 against 51.5.

Who has the edge

Model: CONN by 1.7 · market M-OH by 3.5
Passing game
Clear edge
CONN
CONN passing ranks #28, M-OH defends it at #113; the other way M-OH #5 into CONN's #18.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Slight edge
CONN
CONN rushing ranks #60, M-OH defends it at #88; the other way M-OH #88 into CONN's #64.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Clear edge
CONN
CONN third-down conversion ranks #48, M-OH defends it at #122; the other way M-OH #64 into CONN's #86.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
CONN
M-OH −3.7 per game over the last five, CONN +17.7.
context · not in the margin
Market
Clear edge
M-OH
Consensus has M-OH by 3.5; the model says CONN by 1.7.
context · not in the margin

Where the lines sit Every FBS final since 2023, counted by margin and by total. The dashed lines are the market's number and the model's; the bright bars between them are the share of history that landed in the gap — the games the two numbers actually disagree about. Key numbers (the most common margins) are the pale bars.

3,024 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket M-OH by 3.5 · model CONN by 1.7
Mkt M-OH 3.5
Model CONN 1.7
-28028

9.3% of FBS games land between the two numbers — the zone where the model’s side covers and the market’s does not. The model’s number is across the key number 3. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.6%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).

Totalmarket 51.5 · model 61.2
Mkt 51.5
Model 61.2
246096

21.7% of FBS games finish between 51.5 and 61.2 — the games where the over cashes on the model’s read but not by much. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.

Sharp read Sharp money cannot be seen; who moved first can. Pinnacle and the other market makers move on the bets they respect and retail books copy them hours later. This tracks the market maker's number against retail, its move since the open, and whether the market followed. Recording started September 2026 and it is graded on its own — it is not a pick until a season of results says it should be.

— tap to see the market-maker read ↓
Spread
Sharp side: CONN · model agrees
Opened
M-OH -3.25
Pinnacle now
M-OH -3.75(-1)
Retail now
M-OH -3.5
Moves
14 across 7 books · 4 led

First sharp move Mon 1:20 PM: M-OH -4.5 → M-OH -3.5, 5 books followed within six hours; retail was still M-OH -4.5.Steam Mon 1:20 PM

Total
Sharp side: the over · model agrees
Opened
49.5
Pinnacle now
52(+1.3)
Retail now
51.5+0.5 behind
Moves
11 across 7 books · 2 led

First sharp move Sun 8:04 PM: 50.5 → 52, 0 books followed within six hours; retail was still 50.

Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.