The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
locked before kickoff
Win chance
79%Air Force FalconsStrong✗
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
AFA by 13.6market NDSU by 1.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
45.5 pointsmarket 48.5
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Air Force Falcons at 79% to win, with the market at NDSU by 1.5.
Counterpoint: turnovers / game favours NDSU. NDSU turnovers / game ranks #28, AFA defends it at #87; the other way AFA #50 into NDSU's #8. The pick still lands on AFA because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: NDSU has the better last five games by 14.8 points a game (AFA +9.0, NDSU +23.8).
Home field is with AFA, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it AFA by 13.6 against a market NDSU by 1.5: 15.1 points of daylight in AFA's favour. The model's total is 45.5 against a line of 48.5: 3.0 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model AFA by 13.6 · market NDSU by 1.5
ⓘMost of these areas favor NDSU, but the model still picks AFA. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
NDSU
Clear advantage
NDSU passing ranks #43, AFA defends it at #30; the other way AFA #104 into NDSU's #4.
Rushing game
=
Even
NDSU rushing ranks #71, AFA defends it at #65; the other way AFA #30 into NDSU's #4.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
AFA third-down conversion ranks #27, NDSU defends it at #50; the other way NDSU #60 into AFA's #12.
Big plays
NDSU
Clear advantage
NDSU rush explosiveness ranks #36, AFA defends it at #103; the other way AFA #66 into NDSU's #16.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
AFA sack rate ranks #58, NDSU defends it at #51; the other way NDSU #66 into AFA's #53.
Ball security
NDSU
Clear advantage
NDSU turnovers / game ranks #28, AFA defends it at #87; the other way AFA #50 into NDSU's #8.
Form (last 5)
NDSU
Clear advantage
AFA +9.0 per game over the last five, NDSU +23.8.
Market
NDSU
Slight advantage
Consensus has NDSU by 1.5; the model says AFA by 13.6.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket NDSU by 1.5 · model AFA by 13.6
Mkt NDSU 1.5
Model AFA 13.6
← NDSU by 28tieAFA by 28 →
25.9% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key numbers 3 and 7 and 10. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 48.5 · model 45.5
Mkt 48.5
Model 45.5
24 pts6096 pts
6.6% of FBS games finish between 48.5 and 45.5. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
Sharp read
tap to open+
Where the market maker moved the line since open, and whether other books followed. Tracked, not a pick.
Spread
Sharp side: AFAModel agrees
Opened
NDSU -5.5
→
Market maker now
NDSU -1.75
▲ 3.3 since open
→
Retail now
NDSU -2
in line
19 moves7 books4 ledSteam Mon, Sep 7, 8:56 PM
Mon, Sep 7, 1:20 AM first sharp move: NDSU -4.5 → NDSU -3.5
No books followed within six hours
Retail was still NDSU -5 at that point
Total
Sharp side: the overModel disagrees
Opened
47.5
→
Market maker now
48.5
▲ 1 since open
→
Retail now
48.5
in line
11 moves7 books4 led
Mon, Sep 7, 8:56 PM first sharp move: 47.5 → 48
1 book followed within six hours
Retail was still 47.5 at that point
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
