The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
locked before kickoff
Win chance
57%Mississippi Valley State Delta DevilsLean✗
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
MVSU by 3.0market SAC by 38.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
55.2 pointsmarket 56.5
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils at 57% to win, with the market at SAC by 38.5.
No single matchup area stands out; the call rests on the teams' overall results this season, adjusted for who they played.
Form: SAC has the better last five games by 41.0 points a game (SAC -11.0, MVSU -52.0).
Home field is with SAC, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it MVSU by 3.0 against a market SAC by 38.5: 41.5 points of daylight in MVSU's favour. The model's total is 55.2 against a line of 56.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model MVSU by 3.0 · market SAC by 38.5
ⓘMost of these areas favor SAC, but the model still picks MVSU. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
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not priced
Ranks unavailable.
Rushing game
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not priced
Ranks unavailable.
Third down & red zone
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not priced
Ranks unavailable.
Big plays
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not priced
Ranks unavailable.
Pass protection & rush
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not priced
Ranks unavailable.
Ball security
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not priced
Ranks unavailable.
Form (last 5)
SAC
Clear advantage
SAC −11.0 per game over the last five, MVSU −52.0.
Market
SAC
Clear advantage
Consensus has SAC by 38.5; the model says MVSU by 3.0.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket SAC by 38.5 · model MVSU by 3.0
Mkt SAC 38.5
Model MVSU 3.0
← MVSU by 28tieSAC by 28 →
57.2% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key numbers 3 and 7 and 10 and 14. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 56.5 · model 55.2
Mkt 56.5
Model 55.2
24 pts6096 pts
1.5% of FBS games finish between 56.5 and 55.2. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
