The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
locked before kickoff
Win chance
55%Memphis TigersLean✗
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
MEM by 2.3market BOIS by 9.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
53.1 pointsmarket 54.5
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Memphis Tigers at 55% to win, with the market at BOIS by 9.5.
MEM has the advantage in big plays: MEM pass explosiveness ranks #17, BOIS defends it at #136; the other way BOIS #62 into MEM's #108.
Counterpoint: rushing favours BOIS. BOIS rushing ranks #23, MEM defends it at #136; the other way MEM #40 into BOIS's #82. The pick still lands on MEM because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Home field is with BOIS, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it MEM by 2.3 against a market BOIS by 9.5: 11.8 points of daylight in MEM's favour. The model's total is 53.1 against a line of 54.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model MEM by 2.3 · market BOIS by 9.5
ⓘMost of these areas favor BOIS, but the model still picks MEM. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
=
Even
MEM passing ranks #4, BOIS defends it at #38; the other way BOIS #27 into MEM's #48.
Rushing game
BOIS
Clear advantage
BOIS rushing ranks #23, MEM defends it at #136; the other way MEM #40 into BOIS's #82.
Third down & red zone
BOIS
Slight advantage
BOIS third-down conversion ranks #10, MEM defends it at #56; the other way MEM #29 into BOIS's #6.
Big plays
MEM
Slight advantage
MEM pass explosiveness ranks #17, BOIS defends it at #136; the other way BOIS #62 into MEM's #108.
Pass protection & rush
BOIS
Clear advantage
BOIS sack rate ranks #43, MEM defends it at #62; the other way MEM #81 into BOIS's #31.
Ball security
=
Even
MEM turnovers / game ranks #55, BOIS defends it at #74; the other way BOIS #25 into MEM's #37.
Form (last 5)
=
Even
BOIS +13.8 per game over the last five, MEM +16.2.
Market
BOIS
Clear advantage
Consensus has BOIS by 9.5; the model says MEM by 2.3.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket BOIS by 9.5 · model MEM by 2.3
Mkt BOIS 9.5
Model MEM 2.3
← MEM by 28tieBOIS by 28 →
21.9% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key numbers 3 and 7. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 54.5 · model 53.1
Mkt 54.5
Model 53.1
24 pts6096 pts
2.1% of FBS games finish between 54.5 and 53.1. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
Sharp read
tap to open+
Where the market maker moved the line since open, and whether other books followed. Tracked, not a pick.
Spread
Sharp side: MEMModel agrees
Opened
BOIS -6.5
→
Market maker now
BOIS -9
▲ 0.3 since open
→
Retail now
BOIS -9.5
0.5 behind
22 moves7 books3 led
Thu, Sep 10, 6:24 PM first sharp move: BOIS -8.5 → BOIS -8
No books followed within six hours
Retail was still BOIS -8.5 at that point
Total
Sharp side: the overModel disagrees
Opened
52.5
→
Market maker now
55.3
▲ 0.5 since open
→
Retail now
55.5
in line
28 moves7 books4 ledSteam Mon, Sep 7, 7:20 PM
Mon, Sep 7, 7:20 PM first sharp move: 55.5 → 54.5
5 books followed within six hours
Retail was still 55.5 at that point
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
